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Red Star Belgrade
Europa League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 17, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
Stadion Rajko Mitić
Rangers logo

Red Star
2 - 1
Rangers

Ivanic (10'), Fardou Ben (90+3' pen.)
Dragovic (71'), Katai (83'), Pavkov (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Kent (56')
Kamara (90+2')

Preview: Red Star Belgrade vs. Rangers - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Red Star Belgrade and Rangers, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With one foot already in the Europa League quarter-finals, Rangers will be looking to finish the job when they travel to the Stadion Rajko Mitic for the second leg of their last-16 tie against Red Star Belgrade on Thursday evening.

The Gers, who eased to a 3-0 victory in the first leg at Ibrox last week, are on course to reach the last eight in European competition for the first time in 14 years.


Match preview

Red Star Belgrade's Aleksandar Katai takes a penalty that is saved by Rangers' Allan McGregor on March 10, 2022© Reuters

While Red Star Belgrade will be disappointed to be trailing by three goals at the halfway stage, they certainly posed a threat in the final third at Ibrox and know that another strong attacking performance is required on home soil.

The Serbian outfit had three goals disallowed for offside, including two within the first 12 minutes from top scorer Aleksandar Katai, before the 31-year-old saw his 23rd-minute penalty saved well by the right hand of Allan McGregor. Guelor Kanga was also unfortunate to see his speculative long-range effort in the 70th minute hit the underside of the crossbar.

Nevertheless, Red Star were beaten by the better side last week, suffering their first defeat in any competition since November 4, and Dejan Stankovic's men now need a miracle to have any chance of reaching the quarter-finals.

Red Star managed to bounce back from their midweek defeat with a 2-1 win away at Metalac on Monday, a result which keeps them above city rivals Partizan at the top of the Serbian SuperLiga by virtue of goal difference with just three games remaining.

The Red-Whites are sure to have one eye on their domestic campaign – as they bid to claim their eighth successive top-flight crown – but they will first turn their attention to their Europa League second-leg clash against Rangers, with three goals without reply required to take the tie into extra time and four goals needed to win in 90 minutes.

Red Star – who have never lost a home European match against Scottish opposition in six previous meetings, including three against Rangers – could become the second team in Europa League history to overturn a three-goal first-leg deficit, after Valencia in the 2013-14 quarter-finals, who won 5-0 in the second leg against Basel to progress 5-3 on aggregate.

Rangers' James Tavernier celebrates scoring their first goal with Alfredo Morelos on March 10, 2022© Reuters

After securing an impressive 6-4 aggregate win in the playoff round against Borussia Dortmund last month, Rangers supporters witnessed another memorable European night at Ibrox with a significant statement victory over Red Star last week.

The Gers could not have asked for a better start when James Tavernier's 11th-minute opener from the penalty spot was followed just four minutes later by a strike from Alfredo Morelos. A towering header from Leon Balogun five minutes after half time then added a third for the hosts, to give them control of the last-16 tie.

Giovanni van Bronckhorst's side have now extended their unbeaten Europa League run to seven matches, a run which includes four victories and has seen them score at least twice on five occasions.

Rangers followed up their midweek triumph with another 3-0 win, this time away at Dundee in the Scottish Cup quarter-finals on Sunday. The Gers now have an Old Firm derby against rivals Celtic to look forward to in the semi-finals at Hampden Park next month.

However, the Scottish Premiership holders – who remain three points behind their Glaswegian rivals at the summit – will now be fully focused on their second-leg tie with Red Star, in a stadium regarded as one of the most intimidating in European football.

Rangers have only won one of their last five away games in the Europa League – a 4-2 success in Dortmund – but with a three-goal advantage, they will be confident of booking their place in the last eight for the first time since 2008, when they went on to reach the UEFA Cup final before losing to Zenit St Petersburg.

Red Star Belgrade Europa League form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • L

Red Star Belgrade form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W

Rangers Europa League form:
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • W

Rangers form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W


Team News

Rangers' Ryan Kent in action with Red Star Belgrade's Cristiano Piccini on March 10, 2022© Reuters

Red Star Belgrade's only injury concern is with midfielder Veljko Nikolic, who remains sidelined with an ankle problem.

Even though the hosts have seven players who are just one booking away from a suspension, Stankovic has insisted ahead of the second leg that he will not rest any of his star players, so the likes of Katai, Mirko Ivanic, Strahinja Erakovic and Slavoljub Srnic are all set to start.

Katai – who has scored 23 goals in 35 appearances across all competitions this term – and Ivanic are expected to operate on the flanks, supporting central striker Ohi Omoijuanfo in attack.

As for Rangers, winger Ryan Kent was forced off against Dundee last time out and was pictured with an ice pack around his knee; however, Van Bronckhorst revealed after the game that he had only suffered from an impact knock, so he could be in contention to start on Thursday.

Allan McGregor, John Lundstram and Joe Aribo were all rested last weekend, but the trio are expected to return to the first XI at the expense of Jon McLaughlin, James Sands and Aaron Ramsey respectively.

Both Aribo and Lundstram, as well as Alfredo Morelos and Fashion Sakala, are just one booking away from a ban, but they will all be in contention to feature in Belgrade.

A back four of Tavernier, Connor Goldson, Filip Helander and Calvin Bassey, which started against Dundee, is set to remain intact, with Balogun and Borna Barisic settling for a place on the substitutes' bench.

Red Star Belgrade possible starting lineup:
Borjan; Piccini, Erakovic, Dragovic, Rodic; Sanogo, Srnic; Katai, Kanga, Ivanic; Omoijuanfo

Rangers possible starting lineup:
McGregor; Tavernier, Goldson, Helander, Bassey; Lundstram, Jack, Kamara; Aribo, Morelos, Kent


SM words green background

We say: Red Star Belgrade 1-3 Rangers (Rangers to win 6-1 on aggregate)

As daunting as the Stadion Rajko Mitic experience may be for Rangers, Van Bronckhorst and co will be full of confidence heading into the second leg and they should have no problems in breaking down Red Star's backline once again.

The hosts will fancy their chances of finding the net on Thursday, but the Gers seem too strong for their Serbian counterparts and should win comfortably on aggregate.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rangers win with a probability of 46.84%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rangers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (8.16%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 1-0 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Red Star vs Rangers

Red Star Belgrade
36.6%
Draw
11.8%
Rangers
51.6%
161
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Rangers' James Tavernier celebrates scoring their first goal against Borussia Dortmund on February 24, 2022
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