Rio Ave host Nacional in the Portuguese Primeira Liga on Friday afternoon, with both teams aiming to put some distance between themselves and the bottom three.
Miguel Cardoso's men were defeated 2-0 by second-placed Porto last time out, while the visitors secured an important victory over relegation rivals Famalicao.
Match preview
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Vilacondenses finished in an incredible fifth position last season, but they have struggled since former manager Carlos Carvalhal departed the club over the summer.
After collecting just 15 points from their opening 16 top-flight games in 2020-21, Rio Ave are languishing two places and one point above the relegation playoff place.
Putting the ball in the back of the net has been the main issue for the Estadio dos Arcos outfit in the current campaign. Their 11-goal haul makes them the joint-second lowest scorers in the division and is an issue Cardoso will have to rectify sooner rather than later.
Just one win in their last 10 league outings is frightening form, and unless Rio Ave can turn their performances around, they risk spending at least one season in the Segunda Divisao for the first time since the 2007-08 campaign.
Nacional ended their five-game winless run over the weekend, picking up a potentially pivotal three points via a 2-1 win over Famalicao.
The victory moved Luis Freire's side up to 11th in the league table, three points above the drop zone.
Consecutive victories would see Bolso move five points clear of their upcoming opponents and potentially put some serious daylight between themselves and the relegation places.
Freire will be viewing this encounter as the perfect opportunity to do just that, given Rio Ave's recent struggles, and it could be a game that shapes the rest of their season.
Rio Ave Primeira Liga form: LLWDLL
Rio Ave form (all competitions): LWLDLL
Nacional Primeira Liga form: WLLLDW
Nacional form (all competitions): LLLLDW
Team News
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Long-term absentee Junio is still unavailable for Rio Ave after the 23-year-old right-back fractured his fibula back in June.
He is joined in the treatment room by defensive midfielder Nikola Jambor and striker Andre Pereira, who is set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines after injuring his cruciate ligament.
Centre-forward Brayan Riascos is the only player unavailable for Nacional as the 26-year-old is yet to recover from a muscle injury.
That means Freire is likely to stick with the same starting lineup that secured the victory last time out.
Rio Ave possible starting lineup:
Kieszek; Coentrao, Santos, Borevkovic, Pinto; Augusto, Pele, Tarantini; Gelson, Jeronimo, Carlos Mane
Nacional possible starting lineup:
Piscitelli; Souza, Correia, Kal, Witi; Thill, Ramos, Borges, Azouni, Gorre; Rochez
We say: Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional
This is going to be a tight game of few chances, given how much is at stake for the two teams. Nacional will be carrying the momentum into the match and will be confident of getting a result, but we fancy Rio Ave to hold their ground and snatch a point on home soil as they settle for a point apiece.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 45.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 26.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.84%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
