Roma welcome Lecce to the Stadio Olimpico on Thursday evening as sides from two different divisions meet in the the final round of 16 game of the Coppa Italia.
The visitors sit fifth in Serie B but have already taken one top-tier scalp in this tournament, whilst the hosts will take part in their first cup game of the season.
Match preview
© Reuters
Roma recovered from their late implosion against Juventus - where they threw away a two-goal lead to ultimately lose 4-3 on home turf - with a narrow win over Cagliari at the weekend.
A 33rd-minute penalty from new signing Sergio Oliveira proved to be enough to secure a much-needed three points.
Jose Mourinho's side currently sit seventh in the table, level on points with Fiorentina in sixth but with a six-point gap to the Old Lady in the Europa League spot.
The Giallorossi must now leave their league troubles behind and turn their attention to the cup, where they were knocked out at this stage last year by Spezia Calcio.
A last triumph in the tournament came all the way back in 2008, with Roma having lost two finals in the intervening years, but they will have to pick up their current form before even thinking about lifting the trophy.
Lecce, on the other hand, are on a great run of form currently, winning four of their last five games in all competitions.
They have also lost just a single game since August, which has seen them rise to fifth in the table, just one point off third and four points from the summit.
Yes, this may all be in Serie B, but the other Giallorossi have shown they can mix it with the top-tier sides, having knocked out Spezia in the previous round.
Goals from Marcin Listkowski and Arturo Calabresi either side of half time saw Lecce run out comfortable winners away from home, and they will now fancy their chances against a Roma side who are becoming renowned for their lack of fortitude when events turn against them.
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
After scoring on his debut, Porto-loanee Oliveira will be expected to keep his spot in midfield for the hosts.
He is not the only new arrival at the Olimpico, with Ainsley Maitland-Niles also having joined the ranks in Rome - the right-back has played the last two games but his position remains under threat from Rick Karsdorp after the Dutchman's return from suspension.
One Englishman assured of selection is top scorer Tammy Abraham, who last week became the first player in his debut season at the club to have registered at least eight goals from his first 21 Serie A games for a decade.
Lecce remain without suspended midfielder Romario Benzar, whilst Luca Paganini, Brayan Vera, Marco Bleve and Fabio Pisacane are all doubts.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Maitland-Niles, Mancini, Kumbulla, Vina; Oliveira, Veretout; Zaniolo, Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Abraham
Lecce possible starting lineup:
Gabriel; Calabresi, Lucioni, Dermaku, Barreca; Helgason, Hjulmand; Strefezza, Gargiulo, Rodriguez; Olivieri
We say: Roma 2-1 Lecce
Whilst Roma's recent record in the competition leaves a lot to be desired, as does their form in all competitions of late, we are backing them to scrape past a Lecce side who will be well up for the game and will certainly make them work hard to progress.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 30.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (7.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
