Despite midweek defeat in Europe, Roma return to Serie A duty on the trail of a top four finish, as they host rock-bottom Salernitana on Sunday.
The teams convene at Stadio Olimpico, after defeat to their Norwegian nemesis ended the Giallorossi's nine-match unbeaten run, while the away side arrive in the capital nine points adrift of safety and surely Serie B-bound.
Match preview
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Reprising their group stage rivalry with the first leg of a quarter-final clash on Thursday, Roma took on Norway's national champions Bodo/Glimt for the third time this season in the Europa Conference League.
After an abysmal 6-1 defeat at Aspmyra Stadion in October, the Giallorossi again left chastened by the enterprising overachievers and will have to retrieve a 2-1 deficit in next week's second leg after conceding a goal in the 89th minute.
That loss was their first since being eliminated from the Coppa Italia by Inter in February, and they returned from the international break - before which they beat arch-rivals Lazio 3-0 in the Derby della Capitale - with a 1-0 win at Sampdoria last weekend, thanks to Henrikh Mkhitaryan's first-half strike.
Jose Mourinho's men have, therefore, won four of their last five Serie A matches, while securing five clean sheets from their last seven. Indeed, following those victories against Lazio and Sampdoria, they now seek a third successive clean sheet for the first time since August 2018.
Ahead of Salernitana's arrival in the capital, Roma have lost only one of their last 40 league games against opponents promoted from the second tier the previous season, and none of their last 13 against sides starting the day bottom of the table.
In fact, they have won each of their last five such fixtures - scoring 20 goals in the process - and were emphatic 4-0 winners in August's reverse fixture at Stadio Arechi.
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After Salernitana fell to their 19th defeat of a miserable return to the Italian top flight last week - losing 1-0 to coach Davide Nicola's former club Torino - the Campanian club remain nine points short of safety with only the same number of games left to play.
The Granata's winless streak was extended to a 10th match at the Arechi, as Andrea Belotti slotted home the decisive goal from the penalty spot early in the game, and seven defeats on home soil during that time indicates the improbable task that lies before Nicola, a renowned relegation escapologist only appointed in February.
Now in search of a miracle to avoid immediately returning to Serie B, no team have scored fewer goals this term - a meagre total of 22 to date - and the Salerno side have conceded 66 times in 29 games.
To put that into context, only two teams have avoided demotion having leaked that many at this stage of a top-flight campaign, and both were back in the 1930s.
Salernitana do still have at least one game in hand on their fellow survival contenders in the bottom four, but must start upsetting the odds with some shock victories if they are to achieve a great escape.
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Team News
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Though generally loath to do so, given his disdain for other members of his Roma squad, Jose Mourinho could take this opportunity to rest some overworked players who feature twice-weekly on a routine basis.
Recently returned from injury, Nicolo Zaniolo should step into the side in place of suspended captain Lorenzo Pellegrini, who appeared to deliberately get himself booked towards the end of the win over Sampdoria in order to serve his ban this weekend.
As Gianluca Mancini is also unavailable after picking up an injury in Norway, Chris Smalling is set to return to the hosts' back three, but Tammy Abraham - who has already scored 12 goals in the first half of Serie A games alone (three more than Salernitana) - will continue up front, having opened his account against the Granata last August.
Salernitana, meanwhile, will be disrupted by absentees too, as the injured trio of Mamadou Coulibaly, Lys Mousset and ex-Roma forward Diego Perotti are joined on the sidelines by suspended pair Federico Fazio and Federico Bonazzoli - the former also missing out on a return to his old club.
Luca Ranieri should replace Fazio in defence, while first-choice goalkeeper Luigi Sepe is a doubt with flu-like symptoms, so Vid Belec could be handed a rare start.
In Bonazzoli's absence, Mikael and Franck Ribery will both come into Davide Nicola's thinking up front. Clearly a fading force in the twilight of a successful career, Ribery has failed to score in any of his last 26 Serie A matches.
Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Kumbulla, Smalling, Ibanez; Maitland-Niles, Cristante, Oliveira, Vina; Zaniolo, Mkhitaryan; Abraham
Salernitana possible starting lineup:
Belec; Gyomber, Radovanovic, Ranieri; Mazzocchi, Bohinen, Ederson, L. Coulibaly, Ruggeri; Mikael, Djuric
We say: Roma 2-0 Salernitana
Roma will expect to add another shut-out to their growing total, as they welcome a side with little cutting edge in attack.
Should they preserve their clean sheet, the Giallorossi are bound to strike at some stage given Salernitana's brittle back three, and they now possess the discipline to see out the game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 80.35%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 5.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.53%) and 1-0 (12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.42%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (2.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
