After suffering just their fourth defeat of the season at the weekend, League One leaders Rotherham United look to start 2022 with a return to winning ways, as they welcome Bolton Wanderers to the New York Stadium.
Ahead of their New Year's Day contest, the visitors have been sidelined since mid-December due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the camp, while United saw Lincoln's scheduled visit postponed earlier this week.
Match preview
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Still very much at the forefront of the race for automatic promotion, a five-game winning run came to an end for Rotherham last time out, as they fell to a 1-0 loss at Accrington.
The Millers were undone by Sean McConville's 75th-minute strike for the Lancashire side, which also saw the club's record unbeaten streak brought to a conclusion after a commendable 21 league and cup games.
Indeed, Paul Warne's men had previously tasted defeat back in August, but they nonetheless remain a point clear at the summit of the League One standings.
Rotherham had, in fact, been due to turn out again in midweek, but their fixture against Lincoln City was postponed because of several COVID-19 cases arising within the Imps' squad.
Boasting the division's most productive attack - averaging almost two goals per game - and also owners of the best defensive record, the South Yorkshire outfit have been promoted from the third tier twice in the past four seasons, so have a great deal of experience to aid them through the second half of the current campaign.
Their next obstacle on the long road back to the Championship sees Warne and company meet a side which they managed to beat 2-0 earlier this term, despite having less than a third of the ball and facing 19 shots on goal. They will hope, then, for a repeat of that scoreline on Saturday if not the performance.
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Bolton will be eager to get back out on the field following an enforced break in proceedings over the past fortnight, as each of their last three games have been postponed owing to a virus outbreak at the club.
Fixtures with Wycombe Wanderers, Morecambe and Burton Albion all fell by the wayside over the first part of the festive period, so Ian Evatt's side may have a certain amount of rust to shake off as they face the league's leading team.
While the Trotters' training ground finally reopened on Monday, even Evatt has been absent with COVID-19, so hitting the ground running in 2022 will be a substantial challenge to say the least.
During his first season in charge of Wanderers, the former Barrow boss has managed to register just seven wins from 22 League One outings so far, and Bolton had lost their two most recent matches before being effectively shut down - picking up just one victory from their last five in the league and also crashing out of the FA Cup to Lancashire rivals Stockport.
Scheduled to resume their EFL Trophy campaign at the third round stage early next week, 15th-placed Wanderers would surely take a point on New Year's Day to complete the first half of an inconsistent season.
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Team News
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To date, Rotherham have been fortunate to escape the illness and injury that has beset many other clubs, and the hosts currently have a clean bill of health - offering Paul Warne the opportunity to select his strongest side.
Top scorer Michael Smith and nine-goal partner Freddie Ladapo are set to lead the line for the Millers, with Republic of Ireland winger Chiedozie Ogbene providing some width on the right.
Meanwhile, a back three of Michael Ihiekwe, Wes Harding and Richard Wood is likely to be selected as the rearguard of a 3-1-4-2 formation.
By contrast with his opposite number, Bolton boss Ian Evatt has been particularly hard hit by the latest wave of the pandemic, and it remains to be seen how many players he will have at his disposal to start 2022.
A total of 18 positive tests within the club means that not all of those affected will be fit to return, while Josh Sheehan and Lloyd Isgrove are long-term injury absentees.
However, full-back Gethin Jones (leg) and forward Amadou Bakayoko (hamstring) are nearing returns and could possibly feature on the bench, as first-choice striker Eoin Doyle seeks to end his lean spell in front of goal.
Rotherham United possible starting lineup:
Johansson; Harding, Wood, Ihiekwe; Barlaser; Ogbene, Ferguson, Rathbone, Wiles; Smith, Ladapo
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Dixon; Gordon, Baptiste, Johnston, John; Williams, Lee; Afololayan, Thomason, Kachunga; Doyle
We say: Rotherham United 3-1 Bolton Wanderers
Fuelled by the frustration of their first setback in several months, Rotherham can use their attacking strength to take care of business against a Bolton side with several issues to overcome.
The visitors have effectively been in hibernation for over two weeks, and were struggling for form beforehand, so will be unable to resist the well-drilled league leaders on Saturday.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11%), while for a Bolton Wanderers win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Rotherham United would win this match.
