The top two from Group H of the World Cup 2022 qualifiers meet as Russia take on Croatia at the Luzhniki Stadium on Wednesday evening.
Whilst qualification would generally just be beginning following a European Championship, we are in the odd situation of picking up in the fourth game due to the summer's delayed tournament.
Match preview
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After their success on home soil in the 2018 World Cup - where they surpassed expectations to reach the quarter-finals and dispelled concerns about the country's suitability as a host - Euro 2020 will have felt like something of a failure for Russia.
They went into their final group game against Denmark second in Group B with a good chance to progress, but found a brave team determined to continue their fairytale story, as Denmark produced a spirited display to win 4-1 and knock their opponents out of the tournament.
That led to the dismissal of manager Stanislav Cherchesov, with the Russian Football Union choosing to replace him with Rostov boss Valeri Karpin - although, with a contract that only runs for the duration of the qualification campaign.
The job for Karpin is clear then - to ensure his side progress from Group H.
They currently sit second in the group, separated only by goal difference from opponents Croatia, after two wins but then a disappointing 2-1 loss to Slovakia back in March.
Karpin can consider himself somewhat thrown in at the deep end, with his first game being arguably the most important of the campaign - Russia and Croatia are the two big names of the group and only one can automatically progress, with second place advancing to the second qualification round.
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If either side loses this game, they could well find themselves down in third behind the Slovakians, or even fourth if Cyprus also beat Malta.
Croatia also arguably underachieved if you compare their performance at the European Championships with the World Cup three years earlier.
Admittedly, they set the bar unrealistically high by securing the runners-up spot in Russia, but they would have expected to advance beyond the round of 16.
They were on the receiving end of English revenge in the opening game but survived the group stage, only to be knocked out by Spain in a spectacular 5-3 epic, despite having mounted a dramatic comeback with two goals in the last five minutes to force extra time.
The Croatian bosses have understandably stood by manager Zlatko Dalic - the man responsible for their 2018 World Cup run - but will be expecting to top this qualification group.
A 1-0 loss to Slovenia signalled a disappointing start, before claiming two expected victories against Malta and Cyprus.
Russia will pose a far more potent threat.
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Team News
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The big news in the Russian camp is the absence of former captain Artem Dzyuba, the Zenit St Petersburg striker left out of the squad for the qualifiers and the post of captain now vacant, with the new manager saying a replacement will be selected during their training camp.
Spartak Moscow forward Aleksandr Sobolev has also been dropped as Karpin freshens up his team, with a debut call-up for 19-year-old Konstantin Tyukavin.
There are no significant injury worries for Karpin to contend with, but which lineup and formation he chooses to go with will remain something of a mystery until Wednesday evening.
Dalic has also chosen to drop a regular in attack, with AC Milan's Ante Rebic not making the cut.
This is likely due, at least in part, to the 27-year-old taking to social media after Croatia's exit at Euro 2020 - when he had been criticised for being off the pitch changing his boots whilst Spain equalised - to criticise Dalic and how the team had performed.
Whilst Dalic omitted Rebic, he has called up Borna Sosa, despite the left-back having declared his intention to play for Germany before discovering he would not be eligible.
Captain Luka Modric will be a significant absence, missing out through injury, with Atalanta's Mario Pasalic his potential replacement.
Russia possible starting lineup:
Safonov; Barinov, Diveev, Dzhikiya; Karavaev, Ozdoev, Zobnin, Golovin, Kuzyaev; Miranchuk, Smolov
Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Vrsaljko, Lovren, Vida, Gvardiol; Pasalic, Brozovic, Kovacic; Vlasic, Petkovic, Kramaric
We say: Russia 2-2 Croatia
This should be an exciting match, with the hosts likely to adopt an attack-minded approach. The absence of Modric will be a blow to the away side, but they have plenty of class in their ranks to be able to give Russia as good as they get.
Top tip
James Mackenzie
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 46.28%. A win for Croatia had a probability of 30.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.32%) and 2-0 (6.51%). The likeliest Croatia win was 1-2 (7.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.
