Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 52.99%. A draw had a probability of 25.22% and a win for CSKA Moscow had a probability of 21.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%) , while for a CSKA Moscow win it was 0-1 (7.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.