San Jose Earthquakes will be targeting three points on Thursday when they face the Western Conference's bottom-placed side Austin FC, to keep their slim but not impossible hopes of making the playoffs alive.
With five games to play, the Earthquakes will need to win all of their remaining matches, whilst hoping the sides above them drop points.
Match preview
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Soundly beaten by fellow Californian side Los Angeles FC last time out, the gap between the Earthquakes and the playoffs had stretched to eight points by the close of play on matchday 29.
It had looked as if San Jose would fall catastrophically short of the playoffs earlier in the season, after a run of 11 matches without a win between mid-May and early July had left them scratching around at the bottom of the table.
Matias Almeyda's side enjoyed somewhat of a mid-season revival, yet their inconsistent form in recent weeks has left them with a mountain to climb if they wish to be involved in only their second playoffs since 2013.
As a Californian club, the Earthquakes will be well acquainted to mountains, given their close proximity to the Diablo Range, and their mid-week opponents are another side who have experienced rocky terrain this year.
In their inaugural campaign as a Major League Soccer club, Austin have struggled to leave their mark and enter the final weeks of the season looking to avoid finishing the year bottom of the Western Conference.
They currently trail second-bottom FC Dallas by three points, with a win against San Jose likely to put them within touching distance of their Texan rivals.
However, three points on Thursday looks an unlikely achievement for Austin at the moment, not least given their winless record against San Jose in the previous two meetings between the pair.
The Earthquakes picked up their maiden victory against Austin last month after the two played out a goalless draw in their opening encounter back in June.
Perhaps Austin's only saving grace will be San Jose's dreadful home record, which has seen the side lose seven of their 14 matches at PayPal Park this year.
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Team News
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The issue for Austin this season has been scoring goals and the conference's worst attack will be desperate for top-scorer Cecilio Dominguez to add to his seven league goals already this year.
Dominguez will be part of a depleted Austin side, with Matt Besler (concussion), Ulises Segura (knee) and Aston Schoenfeld (knee) all likely to be missing for the remainder of the month.
Danny Hoesen and Ben Sweat have not been so lucky with their injuries, as the pair have both been ruled out for the rest of the season with a hip problem and anterior cruciate ligament damage respectively.
In contrast to Austin's depleted side, San Jose will boast near enough a full squad for the match, with Matt Bersano (hand) the only absentee through injury.
Slim hopes of a playoff spot will not be aided by the absence of Eric Remedi, who will miss the visit of Austin through suspension.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Abecasis, Nathan, Alanis, Salinas; Silva Tavares, Yueill; Espinoza, Lopez, Ebobisse; Kikanovic
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Jimenez, Cascante, Romana, Kolmanic; Ring, Pochettino; Fagundez, Driussi, Dominguez; Djitte
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Austin FC
Austin will be hoping the 2022 campaign brings about better fortunes for them, after what has been a season to forget for the Texan club.
MLS regulars San Jose have not enjoyed that much better of a year, and with the playoffs a distant dream at this point of the season, the Earthquakes players are likely thinking of their post-season break.
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 58.42%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 18.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.75%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that San Jose Earthquakes would win this match.
