San Jose Earthquakes will be looking to pick up their first win of the season when they play host to Austin FC on Saturday.
As for the visitors, they are winless in their last two matches, but after starting the season with back-to-back victories, they head into the weekend in fourth place in the MLS Western Conference.
Match preview
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After failing to qualify for the playoffs last season, San Jose Earthquakes would have been hoping that the 2022 season would offer more success.
However, one point from their opening four matches suggests that the Earthquakes may have to endure another underwhelming campaign.
Despite losing on opening night to New York Red Bulls, the Quakes came from 3-1 down to draw against Colombus Crew thanks to an equaliser in the sixth minute of stoppage time.
Matias Almeyda would have hoped that the manner in which they picked up that point would have instilled some confidence into his squad, but back-to-back defeats since that 3-3 draw has left the Quakes to contemplate that a long and unrewarding season could be in-store.
If San Jose are to turn a corner then they need their first win of the season to come sooner rather than later, and having won their last two matches against Austin FC, the hosts will believe that Saturday represents as good a chance as any to claim all three points.
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Austin's missed out on the playoffs in their first season in the MLS, but they have started their second campaign on the front foot.
A 5-0 victory over FC Cincinnati on opening night was followed by another impressive result, with Austin sweeping aside Inter Miami via a 5-1 scoreline in their second outing of the season.
Josh Wolf will, however, be concerned that the confidence built from the first two fixtures has seemingly dissipated in his side's last two matches.
Their first away match of the season saw Portland Timbers emerge 1-0 winners before a return to home surroundings resulted in a 1-1 draw against Seattle Sounders.
However, Austin would have been grateful to Diego Fagundez who maintained his side's unbeaten home record this season with a 70th-minute equaliser against the Sounders, but on Saturday their challenge will be to pick up their first away points of the campaign.
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Team News
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Injury issues will prevent Nathan, Shea Salinas and George Asomani from taking part in Saturday's contest.
Despite opting for a back three in San Jose's opening two fixtures, Almeyda is expected to utilise a back four for the third consecutive match.
Tanner Beason is expected to feature in that backline after coming into the side for the contest with Minnesota, while Paul Marie could come in to start at left-back.
As for the visitors, Ruben Gabrielsen will retain his place in the back four after starting the last two matches, and he will be partnered in the centre of defence by Julio Cascante.
After coming off the bench to score the all-important equaliser against Seattle, Fagundez is expected to be given a starting spot for Saturday's contest.
Meanwhile, Wolf could make a change up front, with Maximiliano Urruti set to replace Moussa Djitte in the frontline.
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Beason, Remedi, Calvo, Marie; Gregus, Yueill; Espinoza, Kikanovic, Monteiro; Ebobisse
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Lima, Cascante, Gabrielsen, Kolmanic; Ring, Pereira; Fagundez, Driussi, Dominguez; Urruti
We say: San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Austin FC
In their three meetings against the Earthquakes, Austin are yet to taste victory, and we think that trend will continue on Saturday, with the hosts utilising home advantage to hold their visitors to a point.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a San Jose Earthquakes win with a probability of 54.08%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Austin FC had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a San Jose Earthquakes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.09%), while for an Austin FC win it was 0-1 (6.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
