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Sao Paulo
Brasileiro | Gameweek 16
Aug 15, 2021 at 1am UK
Estadio do Morumbi
Gremio

Sao Paulo
2 - 1
Gremio

Bueno (13'), Gomes (90+4')
Reinaldo (18'), Alves (21'), Gomes (61')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Vanderson (20')
Geromel (12'), Felipe Scolari (61')

Preview: Sao Paulo vs. Gremio - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Sao Paulo and Gremio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Two big Brazilian clubs struggling at the wrong end of the Brasileiro table lock horns on Sunday when Sao Paulo welcome Gremio to the Estadio do Morumbi.

The hosts have claimed just one league victory on home soil so far this campaign, while the visitors have lost five of their six games on the road.


Match preview

Sao Paulo's Luan celebrates scoring their first goal against Palmeiras, pictured on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Sao Paulo head into this weekend's game after claiming a 1-1 draw against Brazilian rivals Palmeiras in the first leg of their Copa Libertadores quarter-final clash on Wednesday.

The Tricolor Paulista broke the deadlock nine minutes after the break through Luan, but they were unable to hold onto their lead as Patrick de Paula equalised in the 74th minute.

Hernan Crespo, who will be pleased that his side remain in the tie against the current holders, now turns his attention back to the Brasileiro, where Sao Paulo have so far failed to live up to the heights expected.

Finishing the last three seasons in fifth, sixth and fourth respectively, Crespo's men currently sit in 16th place this term, just one point and one place above the relegation zone, after winning only three of their opening 15 league games.

They were, however, able to claim all three points in their most recent league match, winning 2-1 away at Atletico Paranaense last weekend.

Sao Paulo have struggled in recent seasons against Gremio, having won only one of their last 12 encounters against them, a 2-1 away win in February.

However, as Crespo's men are currently unbeaten in each of their last five matches across all competitions, he will be hoping that his side can build on this momentum and secure another victory on Sunday, against a side in the relegation zone.

Gremio coach Luis Felipe Scolari pictured on July 17, 2021© Reuters

Gremio have also failed to fulfil their domestic expectations so far this season, though their form is now slowly beginning to improve since the appointment of experienced head coach Luis Felipe Scolari.

Despite being knocked out of the Copa Sudamericana in the last 16, Gremio have accumulated eight points from their last five matches since Scolari took charge at the start of July.

The Immortal Tricolor currently sit 19th in the table with 10 points, five points adrift of Sunday's opponents Sao Paulo, who are placed just outside the bottom four.

Gremio's most recent league result was a 2-1 victory at home to basement club Chapecoense, with first-half strikes from Alisson and Miguel Borja sealing their second Brasileiro win this campaign.

Scolari's men still have a long way to go if they are to escape from the relegation zone, but securing all three points this weekend against a Sao Paulo side, who they have lost to just once in the last six years, should provide them with a much-needed boost going forward.

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Sao Paulo form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D

Gremio Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W

Gremio form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W


Team News

Sao Paulo coach Hernan Crespo during the match on May 5, 2021© Reuters

Sao Paulo centre-back Walce remains out with a cruciate ligament rupture, while Luciano has not played since suffering a muscle injury in June.

Attacking midfielder Martin Benitez is also unavailable after being shown a straight red card against Paranaense as an unused substitute, following an altercation on the touchline.

With one eye on their Copa Libertadores second leg, Crespo may decide to make changes to his starting lineup, which could see the likes of Dani Alves, Luan and Emiliano Rigoni replaced by Igor Vinicius, Igor Gomes and Joao Rojas.

As for Gremio, they will have Diego Souza (thigh), Ferreira (knee), Maicon (calf) and full-back Rafinha (muscle) all sidelined due to injury, while centre-back Walter Kannemann is also a doubt, so Paulo Miranda and Pedro Geromel could start in defence.

In addition, goalkeeper Brenno Costa is set for a short break away from club action, after winning a gold medal with Brazil at the 2020 Olympics, while midfielder Matheus Henrique has left the club, completing his transfer to Italian outfit Sassuolo.

Scolari is unlikely to make too many changes to his first XI, which could see Douglas Costa, Jean Pyerre and Borja all keep their places in attack.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Vinicius, Miranda, Leo, Welington; Nestor, Liziero; Rojas, Sara, Gomes; Pablo

Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Geromel, Tressoldi, Cortez; Mendes, Santos; Costa, Pyerre, Alisson; Borja


SM words green background

We say: Sao Paulo 2-2 Gremio

Sao Paulo and Gremio have had difficult domestic campaigns so far and are placed well below where their fans expect them to be.

The form of both clubs has improved slightly in recent weeks, but with little to separate them, an entertaining score draw could be on the cards at the Estadio do Morumbi.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 46.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 25.94%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.25%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.78%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (9.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Gremio

Sao Paulo
66.7%
Draw
33.3%
Gremio
0.0%
9
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Sao Paulo's Gabriel Sara celebrates scoring their second goal with Martin Benitez on June 23, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Botafogo31197549262364
2PalmeirasPalmeiras32187753272661
3FortalezaFortaleza32179644321260
4FlamengoFlamengo31167850371355
5InternacionalInternacional311411642281453
6Sao Paulo31156104233951
7Bahia31137114237546
8Cruzeiro31128113633344
9Vasco da GamaVasco31127123643-743
10Atletico Mineiro30101194245-341
11Gremio32116153841-339
12Vitoria32115163746-938
13Corinthians32911123740-338
14Fluminense32107152834-637
15CriciumaCriciuma31910123844-637
16BragantinoBragantino32811133440-635
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR3197153339-634
18JuventudeJuventude32810143851-1334
19Cuiaba32610162541-1628
20Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3157192350-2722


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