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Coupe de France | Round of 16
Apr 7, 2021 at 5.45pm UK
 
Toulouse

Saumur
1 - 2
Toulouse

Bouhoutt (32')
Coquau (15'), Billeaux (42'), Fokam Kamguem (78')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Spierings (20' pen.), Kasongo (67')
Diakite (45')

Preview: Saumur vs. Toulouse - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coupe de France clash between Saumur and Toulouse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Saumur take on Toulouse in the last 16 of the Coupe de France on Wednesday.

The sides are two of nine clubs currently competing outside of Ligue 1 to have made it as far as this season's last 16.


Match preview

Toulouse's Kouadio Kone pictured in January 2020© Reuters

Saumur were third in the Pays de la Loire region of the Championnat National 3 level prior to this season being declared null and void due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

As such, their only competitive matches so far this calendar year have been the four cup games they have won to reach this stage, with the 4-1 win over local rivals Sable in February a particular highlight.

Managed by Julien Sourice, Saumur's most established first-team player is arguably 24-year-old midfielder Mohamed Youla, who has played six times for the Guinea national team.

They will head into the match against Toulouse as major underdogs, but the chance of competing in a national cup quarter-final will seriously motivate them all the same.

Indeed, prior to being relegated last season, Toulouse had spent 20 consecutive seasons as a Ligue 1 club, so they will be heavily odds-on favourites to beat their amateur opponents on Wednesday.

Patrice Garande, who was brought into the club as manager by president Damien Comolli last summer, has guided them into second place in Ligue 2 with seven matches of the season remaining, so they appear to have an excellent chance of bouncing back to the level they consider themselves to belong at.

They should head to Saumur full of confidence, too, after an excellent 4-1 win against eighth-placed Nancy on Saturday, with Janis Antiste, Ruben Gabrielsen and Amine Adli all on the scoresheet for the hosts after Saliou Ciss's own goal had given them a helping hand.

Having beaten Niort, Bordeaux and Aubagne to reach this stage of the Coupe de France, Garande will be determined not to waste a golden opportunity to reach the last eight of the competition.

Saumur Coupe de France form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Toulouse Coupe de France form:
  • W
  • W
  • W

Toulouse form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W



Team News

Sourice will be concerned that his side have not played a competitive match for over a month, but is likely to reward the players who have unexpectedly helped get Saumur this far into the competition.

Wail Bouhoutt scored a brace against Montagnarde in the last round, so is likely to start in attack once again, with the forward clearly deadly from the penalty spot.

Toulouse, meanwhile, could travel without Wesley Said due to injury.

English striker Rhys Healey, who scored 11 league goals for MK Dons last season, is Toulouse's top goalscorer this season and should get the nod alongside Antiste in attack.

Saumur possible starting lineup:
Dauvergne; Touzet, Grippon, Pillier; Ngoua, Viaud, Billeaux, Bacha; Blanchard, Bokangu, Bouhoutt

Toulouse possible starting lineup:
Dupe; Sanna, Amian, Dewaest, Gabrielsen, Machado; Adli, Kone, Dejaegere; Healey, Antiste


SM words green background

We say: Saumur 0-2 Toulouse

Toulouse should have far too much quality for their opponents and are unlikely to pass up an excellent opportunity to reach the quarter-final of the Coupe de France.

Garande's side are likely to be a Ligue 1 one side once again next season, so losing to an amateur club would be a huge upset.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 77.3%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Saumur had a probability of 6.83%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-2 with a probability of 15.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.13%) and 0-3 (12.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.23%), while for a Saumur win it was 1-0 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Saumur vs Toulouse

Saumur
21.4%
Draw
0.0%
Toulouse
78.6%
14
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