The Seattle Sounders will renew their rivalry with the Vancouver Whitecaps at Lumen Field on Saturday as the MLS leaders look to remain the only undefeated team this season.
Seattle won their second straight match 2-1 on Wednesday thanks to a late penalty kick, while the Caps conceded another injury-time goal in their last fixtures, falling 2-1 to the LA Galaxy for their fifth successive defeat.
Match preview
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It seems Seattle can do virtually no wrong thus far, notching seven wins and three draws in their opening 10 matches, holding a four-point cushion over Sporting Kansas City for the top spot in the Western Conference.
Brian Schmetzer and his team were dominant from the opening whistle against Real Salt Lake, getting to virtually every loose ball while limiting their opponents to only four shots total through 90 minutes.
As dominant as they have been, they have faced adversity, ending the month of May with two draws, including squandering a 1-0 lead to Atlanta United, while also being bailed out by a Raul Ruidiaz penalty versus Salt Lake after conceding a penalty only nine minutes before that.
Rarely do we see a team perform as good if not better without their starting keeper, along with their captain and their second-leading goalscorer from last season, but the 2021 Sounders have not missed a beat, despite missing those three key players.
Schmetzer has preached the importance of putting players in the best position to succeed, and so far, they have, with every player making their mark, even despite the injuries to keeper Stefan Frei, striker Jordan Morris and their skipper Nicolas Lodeiro.
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While everything seems to be going right for Seattle, everything appears to be going wrong for Marc Dos Santos and his Vancouver Whitecaps.
By no means has his team been badly outplayed in any game this season, but the pressure of having to hang onto a match late in regulation seems to be overwhelming them.
In their last two games, the Caps had a point in their grasp before letting it slip away, conceding twice in injury time to lose 3-1 to Real Salt Lake and then giving up a goal in the 93rd minute to the LA Galaxy after finding an equaliser in the previous minute.
Five consecutive defeats matches, the worst losing streak for this team since 2019, which was the first season for Dos Santos as coach.
Given how bad things have become for the Caps, they might look at this match with the Sounders as a positive sign, and given that they lead the Cascadia Cup standings right now with their win against Portland, perhaps this is just the motivation they need to get their season back on track.
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Team News
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Backup goalkeeper Stefan Cleveland will start his sixth consecutive match in relief of starter Stefan Frei, who is still recovering from a knee injury.
Midfielder and captain Nicolas Lodeiro is still recovering from knee surgery, Jordy Delem and Jordan Morris are both out with cruciate ligament ruptures, while Josh Atencio has a muscle injury.
Raul Ruidiaz scored his 50th career MLS goal for the Rave Green and his eighth of this campaign, which puts him in a tie for top scorer with Galaxy striker Chicharito.
Midfielder Kelyn Rowe made his 250th appearance for Seattle in their victory over Salt Lake, and midfielder Cristian Roldan needs just one goal to hit 25 for his career with the Sounders after scoring the opening goal versus Claret and Cobalt.
Whitecaps left-back Ali Adnan remains out of the lineup as the club tries to sort out his visa issues.
Midfielder Janio Bikel notched his first goal of the season in a losing effort versus the Galaxy, while their top scorer from 2020, Lucas Cavallini, is without a goal in his last eight matches.
Cristian Gutierrez has started the last two games on defence for the Caps in place of the injured Bruno Gaspar, who was taken off with five minutes to play in their 2-1 defeat to the Houston Dynamo.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Cleveland; Gomez, O'Neill, Smith; Roldan, Rowe, Leyva, Dobbelaere; Montero, Bruin; Ruidiaz
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Nerwinski, Godoy, Veselinovic, Gutierrez; Dajome, Bikel, Owusu, Teibert; Raposo, Cavallini
We say: Seattle Sounders 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
The Sounders have won the last three meetings against the Caps by a combined score of 6-1, having not lost a home fixture to Vancouver since 2016.
Seattle continuously find ways to win, and their top attacking threat is at the top of his game, while the Caps keep finding ways to lose, and their top attacker appears to have lost his scoring touch.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Seattle Sounders win with a probability of 79.14%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 7.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Seattle Sounders win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.96%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 1-2 (2.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
