Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 45.66%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 26.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.06%) and 2-1 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.88%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (9.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood.