Senegal and Eswatini square off in COSAFA Cup semi-final action on Friday, with a place in Sunday's final on the line.
Senegal qualified at the top of Group B thanks to a 92nd-minute winner in the final game, while their opponents finished in second spot in Group A against the odds thanks to an impressive showing.
Match preview
Despite coming in as one of the pre-tournament favourites, Senegal suffered a disappointing defeat in their opening game as they took on Namibia.
Albert Diene drew them level after Marcel Papama's early opener, but Elmo Kambimdu would restore Namibia's lead in the 50th minute to see Senegal lose 2-1.
However, Aliou Cisse's men would quickly bounce back, firstly defeating Mozambique 1-0 thanks to Pape Massar Djitte's goal on the hour mark.
They then came from behind to defeat Zimbabwe and move into the top two, as Abdoul Ndoye equalised on the stroke of half time after Qadr Amin's third-minute penalty, and Mohamed Rassoul Ba hit the winner in the dying minutes.
While the meeting between first-placed Namibia and third-placed Mozambique in the final round of fixtures meant Senegal were almost guaranteed a place in the semi-finals regardless of results, they did seal top spot with a 2-1 win over Malawi.
Abu Bakr Diop opened the scoring in the 11th minute before hitting the winner in added time following Khuda Muyaba's equaliser.
They now head into the semi-finals with hopes of securing the trophy as a guest nation, having won the West-African equivalent on home turf in 2019.
Despite coming into a tough group as relative underdogs, Eswatini consistently looked in a strong position to qualify, having defeated Lesotho 3-1 in the opening game.
Felix Badenhorst's opener was cancelled out by a Tumelo Khutlang equaliser on the stroke of half time, but Khethokuhle Mkhontfo restored the lead before Fanelo Mamba put the game out of sight in the 78th minute.
They then fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat at the hands of group favourites South Africa, with Thabang Sibanyoni netting the only goal of the game on the hour mark against 10 men after Felix Badenhorst was sent off on the stroke of half time.
Dominic Kunene's men quickly bounced back in the following game, as Sandile Gamedze fired them to a 1-0 win over Zambia, seeing Eswatini break back into the top two.
They went into the final game against Botswana simply needing a point to confirm a top-two finish and book their place in the final four, and they picked that up in a 1-1 draw, with Sabelo Ndzinisa opening the scoring before Thatayaone Kgamanyane equalised for their opponents to see Eswatini finish in second place on seven points, drawing them against Group B's first-placed nation.
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Team News
Despite being without foreign-based stars such as Liverpool attacker Sadio Mane, Chelsea goalkeeper Edouard Mendy and Napoli defender Kalidou Koulibaly, Senegal still boast an abundance of talent across the pitch, more than capable of going all the way in this year's tournament.
Abdoul Ndiaye should continue to lead the line, having hit the first of their two goals as they defeated Zimbabwe 2-1 in the group stage.
He will be joined in an exciting front three by Albert Diene, who drew them level against Namibia in the opening game, and Abu Bakr Diop, who hit a brace in their 2-1 win over Malawi.
The Eswatini line will be led by Sabelo Ndzinisa, who opened his account for the tournament in the final group game.
He will be supported by key man Felix Badenhorst, who returned from a suspension last time out, bringing plenty of quality to the front line.
Kunene is expected to stick with the pairing of Sihlangu Bonginkosi Mkhwanazi and Siboniso Mamba at the heart of a back four following a series of impressive performances throughout the group stage.
Senegal possible starting lineup:
N'Diaye; Gomis, Ndiaye, Kane, Fall; Seydi, Mendy, Gueye; Diene, Ba, Diop
Eswatini possible starting lineup:
Mathabela; Mkhonta, Mamba, Mkhwanazi, Magagula; Matse, Mkhontfo; Gabedze, Badenhorst, Figuaredo; Ndzinisa
We say: Senegal 2-0 Eswatini
Although Eswatini looked impressive in their group campaign, they could fall short against a strong Senegal side on Friday.
Despite not having their strongest squad available, Aliou Cisse's men still boast more than enough quality to go all the way in this year's COSAFA Cup, and they should be able to get past Friday's opponents with relative comfort.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 54.78%. A win for Eswatini had a probability of 22.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Eswatini win was 1-2 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.37%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
