Serbia and Luxembourg meet in Belgrade on Saturday evening in a game which will play a significant part in deciding who finishes in the top two of Group A.
While the home side are aware that they will be on the brink of achieving that target with victory at the weekend, Luxembourg will overtake them if they record yet another shock win in World Cup qualifying.
Match preview
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After missing out on qualification for Euro 2020, it was imperative that Serbia started their efforts to reach the next World Cup on the front foot.
Seven points from a possible nine, including a draw with Portugal, represents an excellent return for Dragan Stojkovic and his squad ahead of two crucial fixtures with Luxembourg and Republic of Ireland.
While the latter are now unlikely to pose any threat to the top two, Stojkovic will be desperate to get two more wins on the board knowing that a visit to Portugal is scheduled to be their last fixture.
Serbia warmed up for this contest with a 4-0 triumph over Qatar earlier this week, Luka Jovic and Dusan Vlahovic both getting on the scoresheet after being named in a weakened starting lineup.
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At a time when Serbia were taking on the 2022 World Cup hosts in Debrecen, Luxembourg were collecting another win which keeps them in the hunt for arguably the most surprising qualification in World Cup history.
Claiming positive results against Republic of Ireland and Azerbaijan, their latest success being helped by two goals during the opening half hour, means that the Red Lions deserve their growing respect.
Playing back-to-back fixtures against Serbia will ultimately make-or-break their campaign, but the fact they have never won more than three games during a qualification campaign highlights that they are bidding to enter unfamiliar territory.
Luc Holtz will argue that it is too soon to start visualising a spot in the playoffs, a perception which rings true given the level of opposition in front of them.
That said, being allowed to dream is what got Luxembourg into this position in the first place, and this group of players will not fear the daunting trip to Belgrade.
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Team News
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Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Aleksandar Mitrovic will be among the players who are handed a recall by Serbia boss Stojkovic.
Dusan Tadic may get the nod over Jovic and Vlahovic, while Filip Kostic should return on the left flank after the drama of his failed move from Eintracht Frankfurt to Lazio.
That would see Aleksa Terzic remain among the replacements despite being an unused substitute earlier this week.
Luxembourg will be able to call upon Maxime Chanot with the defender having served his one-match suspension for being sent off against Portugal.
Chanot may take the place of either Dirk Carlson or Enes Mahmutovic in what may represent the only change from the team which started versus Azerbaijan.
Serbia possible starting lineup:
Rajkovic; Milenkovic, Mitrovic, Pavlovic; Radonjic, Milinkovic-Savic, Gudelj, Maksimovic, Kostic; Tadic, Mitrovic
Luxembourg possible starting lineup:
Moris; Jans, Mahmutovic, Chanot, Pinto; Pereira; Martins, S.Thill, O.Thill; Sinani, Rodrigues
We say: Serbia 3-0 Luxembourg
While Luxembourg deserve plenty of respect ahead of this game, we cannot ignore that this is one of the biggest matches in their history. With that in mind, it is conceivable to believe that the extra pressure may play into the hands of their talented hosts.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 49.1%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Luxembourg had a probability of 25.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Luxembourg win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
