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Sevilla logo
La Liga | Gameweek 38
May 23, 2021 at 8pm UK
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán
Alaves logo

Sevilla
1 - 0
Alaves

Papu (90+2')
Vidal (29'), Lopetegui (85')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Preview: Sevilla vs. Alaves - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Sevilla and Alaves, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Sevilla will be hoping that a win over Alaves on Sunday evening is enough to move above Barcelona and claim third position in Spain's top flight.

Julen Lopetegui's side are currently fourth in the La Liga table, two points behind third-placed Barcelona, while Alaves occupy 15th spot and have already secured their status at this level for another season.


Match preview

Sevilla head coach Julen Lopetegui pictured on April 4, 2021© Reuters

Sevilla have enjoyed an impressive 2020-21 La Liga season, winning 23, drawing five and losing nine of their 37 matches to collect 74 points, which has left them in fourth position in the table.

An incredible run of form between the middle of March and end of April had put them firmly in the title argument, but they have now only won one of their last four in the league, suffering two defeats in the process.

As a result, Lopetegui's side are down in fourth spot in the table, two points behind third-placed Barcelona, who are in action on Saturday evening against already-relegated Eibar.

Sevilla have already comfortably secured a top-four position, but they will be determined to bounce back from last weekend's 4-0 defeat at Villarreal, which would certainly have come as a shock.

Los Nervionenses, who have not finished higher than fourth at this level since 2009, have been impressive on home soil this term, picking up 40 points from 18 matches, which is the second-best record in the league behind Atletico Madrid, who will be looking to secure the title this weekend.

Alaves' Luis Rioja celebrates scoring their first goal on February 13, 2021© Reuters

Alaves were in serious relegation danger earlier this month but successive victories over Elche and Granada have allowed them to secure their top-flight status for at least another season.

Indeed, the Basque club now sit 15th in the table, five points clear of the relegation zone, meaning that they will not be under any pressure to pick up a result in their final match of the campaign.

El Glorioso have certainly had their problems this term, but it will be a fifth straight year at this level of football for the club, who have been in strong form under Javier Calleja.

Indeed, since Calleja's appointment on a short-term deal at the start of April, Alaves have won four, drawn three and lost just one of their eight matches, with the 43-year-old making a strong impression at the helm.

The Basque club will be the underdogs heading into this match, though, and they are winless in their last six La Liga matches with Sevilla, who won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season.

Sevilla La Liga form:
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L

Alaves La Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Sevilla's Marcos Acuna celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 4, 2021© Reuters

Sevilla will be without the services of two of their usual back four this weekend, with Diego Carlos and Marcos Acuna both suspended, as the former picked up a red card against Villarreal and the latter a landmark yellow.

As a result, there are likely to be starts for Sergio Escudero and Sergi Gomez in defence; Lopetegui does not have any fitness concerns, but there are still expected to be changes elsewhere.

Indeed, leading goalscorer Youssef En-Nesyri should replace Luuk de Jong in the final third of the field, while Joan Jordan could be handed a spot in the middle of the park.

As for Alaves, Edgar Mendez is back following a suspension, but Rodrigo Ely, Inigo Cordoba, Burgui and Javier Lopez remain on the sidelines through injury.

Head coach Calleja is expected to name a similar side to the one that started against Granada, with Pere Pons, Luis Rioja and Joselu all featuring in the XI.

The returning Mendez could replace Lucas Perez on the right, but that could be the extent of the alterations, with the back four and goalkeeper set to remain unchanged on Sunday evening.

Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Bounou; Navas, Kounde, S Gomez, Escudero; Fernando, Jordan; Ocampos, P Gomez, Suso; En-Nesyri

Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Aguirregabiria, Laguardia, Lejeune, Duarte; Pons, Pina, Battaglia; Mendez, Joselu, Rioja


SM words green background

We say: Sevilla 2-0 Alaves

Alaves's recent form has been impressive, and they are certainly capable of causing Sevilla problems on Sunday night. The home side could potentially still finish third, though, and we are finding it difficult to back anything other than a routine success for Lopetegui's team.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Matt Law

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 65.49%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 13.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.22%) and 2-1 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.95%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sevilla in this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Sevilla vs Alaves

Sevilla
94.0%
Draw
2.0%
Alaves
4.0%
50
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Real Madrid's Marco Asensio celebrates scoring against Sevilla in La Liga on May 9, 2021
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Barcelona18122450203038
2Atletico MadridAtletico17115131112038
3Real Madrid17114237162137
4Athletic Bilbao1896327161133
5Villarreal177642928127
6Mallorca188371821-327
7Real Sociedad177461611525
8GironaGirona187472625125
9Osasuna176742225-325
10Real BetisBetis176652021-124
11Sevilla176471823-522
12Rayo Vallecano175661920-121
13Celta Vigo176382528-321
14Las PalmasLas Palmas175482227-519
15Leganes174671523-818
16Getafe173771114-316
17AlavesAlaves174491928-916
18Espanyol1743101629-1315
19Real ValladolidValladolid1833121237-2512
20Valencia162591424-1011


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