La Liga will see history forged this weekend as Sevilla and Real Betis play their 100th top-flight Sevillian derby. Sevilla have won 46 of the last 99 encounters, while Betis have emerged victorious in just 30.
El Gran Derbi will be hosted at Sevilla's Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and three points for either side would do wonders for their respective Champions League ambitions.
Match preview
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Following a traumatising week that saw Julen Lopetegui's Sevilla side bested by Barcelona twice, once in the league and once in the Copa del Rey, Los Palanganas have entered a downward spiral that has eroded their solid league form.
A shock 2-1 loss against Elche in the league last time out followed by Champions League elimination at the hands of Borussia Dortmund has left Lopetegui's men in desperate need of a quick return to winning ways.
Fortunately for Lopetegui, fourth-placed Sevilla are unbeaten in their last four league games against Betis. Their last loss came in 2018 under the stewardship of Pablo Machin.
Lopetegui will hope his faltering attackers will be able to find the back of the net this weekend. Preferred frontman Youssef En-Nesyri has not scored in his last four league games.
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Inexplicably, Real Betis have found a hot vein of form in recent weeks and have gone from mid-table nobodies to Champions League hopefuls.
Manuel Pellegrini's sixth-placed Betis side have won five of their last six league games and come into this tie on the back of four consecutive victories.
Of course, it is never smooth sailing for Betis and there have been close shaves on numerous occasions. Against Alaves last time out, Betis only just managed to come away with the three points thanks to late goals from Joaquin and Borja Iglesias.
Betis and Sevilla are the teams with the most points won from goals in the last 15 minutes of games this season, so expect a flurry of activity in the dying stages of this game.
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Team News
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Despite recovering from a manic few weeks that has seen Sevilla dumped out of two competitions, Lopetegui's squad is in good nick.
The only absentee for Sevilla is forward Aleix Vidal, who is unavailable due to a hamstring injury.
Betis will likely still be without defensive stalwart Marc Barta, who is nursing a tendon injury.
Other absentees for Pellegrini's side include goalkeeper Dani Martin and midfielder Victor Camarasa.
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Bono; Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna; Jordan, Fernando, Rodriguez; Suso, En-Nesyri, Ocampos
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Robles; Emerson, Mandi, Sidnei, Gonzalez; Ruibal, Rodriguez; Fekir, Guardado, Canales; Juanmi
We say: Sevilla 0-2 Real Betis
We think El Gran Derbi has a shock on the cards for us. Betis have been awful at times this season, but at the moment they just look manic and more than capable of pulling off the spectacular. Sevilla are recovering from a poor spell and we think Betis will take advantage of that. Expect a late goal from Joaquin.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sevilla win with a probability of 46.33%. A win for Real Betis had a probability of 28.04% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sevilla win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Real Betis win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sevilla in this match.
