Shakhtar Donetsk host Borussia Monchengladbach on Tuesday in Group B of the Champions League, with both sides looking to remain unbeaten after promising starts in the competition.
The Ukrainian champions surprisingly lead a tough group having beaten Real Madrid and drawn to Inter Milan, with Gladbach drawing both of their matches against the same European giants.
Match preview
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Luis Castro has been without several key players in both Champions League matches so far, largely due to positive coronavirus tests, so to be on four points from two matches against recent champions of this competition is quite something.
Indeed, Shakhtar stunned the world by taking a 3-0 lead in the first half on the opening matchday at Real Madrid, with a late comeback from the 13-times champions of the competition ultimately held off in a dramatic 3-2 victory. 20-year-old Tete was the star of the show, scoring and assisting while constantly causing a threat on the counter.
Castro's side were considerably fortunate to avoid defeat against Inter, though, with the Italians dominating the match but missing several good chances to be held to a 0-0 draw. Nicolo Barella and Romelu Lukaku both hit the crossbar, with Lautaro Martinez missing from six yards after Anatoliy Trubin had parried Marcelo Brozovic's strike.
It seems unlikely they will get away with a similarly tepid performance against a Gladbach side who can be ruthless in attack on their day, but equally Shakhtar will fancy their chances of testing their opposition going the other way much more frequently.
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While Marco Rose will be content with his side remaining unbeaten in Europe's elite competition, especially given the fierce competition they have faced, the 44-year-old must be scratching his head wondering how his side have only picked up two points from their two matches so far.
Having fought back brilliantly to lead Inter 2-1 at San Siro, with Florian Neuhaus in sensational form in midfield, Gladbach allowed a last-minute corner to run all the way across their box with Lukaku duly tapping in at the back post to tie the game 2-2.
It was de ja vu against Real Madrid, too, with Marcus Thuram's brace giving the Germans the lead until Karim Benzema restored hope for Zinedine Zidane's side in 87th minute. Gladbach nerves jangled once more with midfielder Casemiro scoring a last-minute equaliser to deny them three points in the dying seconds once more in another 2-2 draw.
Rose will be targeting the trip to Shakhtar as a chance to right those wrongs, then, with the Ukrainians a side he will be expecting to finish ahead of in the group.
Shakhtar Donetsk Champions League form: WD
Shakhtar Donetsk form (all competitions): DWWDDW
Borussia Monchengladbach Champions League form: DD
Borussia Monchengladbach form (all competitions): WDDWDW
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Castro will remain without several options for the testing battle with Gladbach, with Dentinho, Fernando and Viktor Kovalenko all out due to coronavirus.
Maksym Malyshev (knee), Ismaily (cruciate ligament) and Yevgeni Konoplianka (torn muscle) are all long-term absentees, meanwhile, but Taison and Alan Patrick should return to the starting XI having done so domestically at the weekend.
Rose is without Jordan Beyer due to coronavirus, with Denis Zakaria lacking fitness and Andreas Poulsen still out with a shoulder injury.
The Gladbach boss likes to shuffle his pack as much as possible, so Thuram should return to the side having only come off the bench in the 1-0 win against RB Leipzig at the weekend.
Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Trubin; Dodo, Bondar, Khocholava, Korniyenko; Maycon, Patrick, Antonio; Tete, Marlos, Solomon
Borussia Monchengladbach possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Lainer, Ginter, Elvedi, Bensebaini; Kramer, Neuhaus; Hofmann, Stindl, Thuram; Plea
We say: Shakhtar Donetsk 1-2 Borussia Monchengladbach
With Shakhtar potentially still missing several key players, we expect their luck to run out against a Gladbach side full of confidence after several impressive displays recently.
Thuram could be too hot for the Ukraine side's defence to handle, but it would be no surprise to see goals fly in at either end with both teams geared towards their attacking talent.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Monchengladbach win with a probability of 41.74%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Monchengladbach win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 1-0 (10.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Monchengladbach would win this match.
