Two sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the League One standings can put an end to their lengthy winless runs as Shrewsbury Town host Morecambe at New Meadow on Saturday.
Since a 1-0 triumph over Sheffield Wednesday in their opening fixture this year, The Shrews have failed to win eight straight matches in all competitions, while the team from Lancashire are without a victory in five consecutive contests, drawing Gillingham 1-1 last weekend.
Match preview
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Town created its share of half chances on Saturday away to Plymouth Argyle, but it was ultimately one mistake after a little more than an hour of play, which was all the Pilgrims would need, as Conor Grant scored with a free shot on the edge of the area, sending Shrewsbury to defeat.
Aside from a 4-1 loss to Liverpool in the third round of the FA Cup, Steve Cotterill's men have shown an ability to shut down opposing sides for long stretches this year, but they have rarely been able to finish in front of goal, scoring one time or fewer in each of their matches played so far in 2022, with all of their fixtures in January and February finishing by that same slender margin.
Heading into the New Year, this team had shown some impressive form in the final third, scoring six goals in their last three domestic fixtures of 2021, so it has to be disappointing to see them struggling so badly at the moment, without a goal in five matches this year.
Following their defeat to Plymouth, Cotterill noted that his players were a little too reliant on one or two of their key contributors, and not showing as much confidence as they needed to in order to achieve a positive result.
Three of their next four matches will take place at New Meadow, so it will be an excellent opportunity for them to put some distance between themselves and the relegation zone, sitting only four points above that mark at the moment, but losing just one of their last nine domestic encounters played at home.
This team have some tight ball skills, which is essential when playing in their traditional 3-5-2 formation, and they work hard to stay close to one another, enabling them to cut off their opponents' space quickly, making it difficult for opposing sides to counter through the middle.
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Despite needing a late equaliser to collect a point on Saturday, manager Stephen Robinson found it challenging afterwards to point out many flaws in the way that his side performed.
When you break down the numbers and watch that encounter back, it is difficult to argue with the former Tottenham midfielder's praise for his players, who had 68% possession, strung together twice as many passes as their opposition and pressed Gillingham seemingly for the majority of the match.
Even though they have only won two of their 10 fixtures played this year, their coach has encouraged his team to keep playing the style that they want while also entertaining people, though he would like to see them keep the ball out of their box a little more often than we have seen throughout this campaign.
One noticeable difference in their play last Saturday, according to Robinson, was the consistency that his squad showed when it comes to pressing, something that was not as evident in their previous games, particularly versus Lincoln City when they were on their heels for the opening 20 minutes and behind by two goals.
As dominant as they were versus The Gills, these players struggle to remain solid through 90 minutes, conceding four of their last five goals in the second half.
Four of their next five games will take place away from home, and with The Shrimps currently in the final relegation place, picking up a victory or two over this next stretch would go a long way in their quest to dig themselves out of their current predicament, currently sitting a point behind Wimbledon for League One salvation.
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Team News
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Daniel Udoh, Matthew Pennington and Luke Leahy are the only players for the Shrews who have found the back of the net this year, with the Nigerian leading the way with eight goals domestically.
Josh Daniels came into the starting lineup versus Plymouth and seemed to add a different attacking dimension for them, as he, Udoh and Ryan Bowman were inserted into the first 11 rather than Aaron Pierre, Saikou Janneh and Tom Bloxham.
Goalkeeper Marko Marosi has conceded a goal or fewer in his last nine domestic encounters at home, maintaining four clean sheets along the way.
The Morecambe offence rely heavily on Cole Stockton, who is tied with Sunderland's Ross Stewart for the league lead in goals with 18, as he and Adam Phillips tallied in their 2-0 victory versus Shrewsbury in August.
Jonathan Obika equalised for The Shrimps in the 84th minute last Saturday, cancelling out the wonder strike from Ryan Jackson, while three of the five goals scored by Kenyan striker Jonah Ayunga have come on the road.
After being replaced by Kyle Letheren in their 2-0 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday earlier this month, Trevor Carson has reclaimed his place as the number one goalkeeper, with the man on loan from Dundee United featuring in their last two fixtures, stopping three of the four shots that he faced against Gillingham.
Shrewsbury Town possible starting lineup:
Marosi; Pierre, Ebanks-Landell, Pennington; Daniels, Fornah, Davis, Vela, Bennett; Udoh, Bloxham
Morecambe possible starting lineup:
Carson; Cooney, O'Connor, Bedeau, Leigh; Phillips, Diagouraga, Wildig; Obika, Stockton, Ayunga
We say: Shrewsbury Town 2-1 Morecambe
They have not played all that bad, but psychologically many things that could go wrong for Morecambe have lately, and that alone can be challenging to overcome when you are in a slump and desperate to stay in the league.
Their current winless slide may be longer than their opponents on Saturday, but The Shrews are a side with a lot more confidence at home, and their tight and compact midfield should be able to take away a lot of The Shrimps time and space, which would allow them to focus heavily on stopping the dangerous Cole Stockton.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shrewsbury Town win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (9.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Shrewsbury Town would win this match.