A crucial battle at the bottom of Serie A takes place on Saturday afternoon, as 16th-placed Spezia welcome Cagliari to Stadio Alberto Picco.
The pair convene in Liguria, with the visitors trailing their hosts by just a point in the standings following an upturn in fortunes during February.
Match preview
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While their opponents this weekend have been making their way out of the relegation zone over the past few weeks, Spezia have been sucked back into trouble after their bright start to 2022 started to fade.
Four straight defeats for Thiago Motta's side - the first time that has happened in the club's brief Serie A history - sees them just four points above the bottom three, having played a game more than 18th-placed Venezia.
Since the start of last month, the Aquilotti have collected just a solitary point from five games, and only pointless pair Rayo Vallecano and Angers have accrued fewer throughout the same period across the top five European leagues.
Following a late loss to Roma, who were awarded a penalty deep into stoppage time, Spezia were beaten 1-0 in their most recent outing on home soil, and they have never before gone successive home games without scoring in the top flight.
They will be seeking to aim a barren spell of over four hours on Saturday, though, as Motta saw his team edged out 1-0 again last weekend, when they succumbed to injury-hit Juventus in Turin.
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Since Spezia were promoted to the Italian elite in 2020, Cagliari have yet to defeat their Ligurian counterparts in three attempts - and they had to come from two goals behind to draw August's reverse fixture 2-2.
Nonetheless, the Sardinian side will be less concerned about precedent than recent form when the two clubs clash at the Picco, as they have been steadily closing their deficit in the Serie A standings and can now leapfrog their hosts with a win.
Cagliari remained unbeaten in away games throughout the month of February; recording two wins - against Atalanta and Torino - and a draw versus Empoli, which gives them a fighting chance of maintaining their top flight status come May.
However, the Rossoblu's streak was ended by Lazio last Saturday, as they were beaten by the capital club at Unipol Domus - going down to a comprehensive 3-0 defeat.
They now return to the road in search of just a fourth away win of the season, but goals remain a problem for Walter Mazzarri's side. Having scored at a rate of less than one per game on the Italian mainland, they may need to start improving that figure soon in order to complete their survival mission.
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Team News
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Spezia's squad has been bolstered by the return of several players ahead of Saturday's match, as M'Bala Nzola and Ebrima Colley have recovered from their respective injuries, while both Jakub Kiwior and Kelvin Amian are available again following suspension.
Though Jacopo Sala is still training alone following an injury sustained against Roma, and is likely to miss out once again, Thiago Motta has an almost full hand from which to choose.
Given his last lineup pushed Juventus close, the hosts' head coach may opt to keep a similar starting XI, with Rey Manaj leading the line up front; supported by Daniele Verde and Emmanuel Gyasi.
Cagliari, meanwhile, finally have Colombian striker Damir Ceter back in full training, and he could even feature on the bench this week, but Nahitan Nandez is still absent due to a knee problem.
Daniele Baselli is expected to overcome an ankle issue to start in midfield, and either Razvan Marin or Alessandro Deiola could make way for his return to the visitors' side.
Up front, captain Joao Pedro will aim to end a dry spell of almost two months, having scored three goals in as many games against Spezia in Serie A - including a brace in this season's reverse fixture.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Amian, Erlic, Nikolau, Reca; Bastoni, Maggiore, Kiwior; Verde, Manaj, Gyasi
Cagliari possible starting lineup:
Cragno; Goldaniga, Lovato, Carboni; Bellanova, Grassi, Baselli, Marin, Dalbert; Pedro, Pavoletti
We say: Spezia 1-1 Cagliari
Having shipped 50 league goals already, Spezia are not the most defensively sound side, but their opponents have often failed to deliver in the final third.
Neither team is likely to keep a clean sheet, so these two relegation rivals will share the spoils with a score draw.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 39.24%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 33.46% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.29%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
