Spezia host Udinese on Sunday morning with both sides having identical Serie A records, claiming 18 points from their 19 Serie A matches this campaign.
The hosts lost their first top-flight match in four courtesy of a 4-3 defeat at Roma last weekend, while Udinese are hoping to avoid extending their winless league run to 10 matches.
Match preview
© Reuters
Thursday night saw another flurry of goals in a match involving Spezia as a six-goal thriller resulted in Napoli progressing to the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, winning 4-2 on home soil.
Gli Azzurri stormed into a 4-0 half-time lead before two goals in three minutes from Emmanuel Gyasi and Gennaro Acampora gave Spezia hope of a remarkable second-half comeback, but the hosts held on for the victory.
Including their recent encounters with Roma, Vincenzo Italiano's side have seen 16 goals find the back of the net in their last three matches – scoring and conceding eight times – but the 43-year-old head coach will be pleased that his team were competitive against two of Italy's strongest clubs.
Spezia, who have lost nine of their 19 Serie A matches this season, have picked up seven points from their last four league games which has helped them escape the relegation zone and move four points clear.
Le Aquile are unbeaten in their last seven meetings against Udinese in all competitions and could move as high as 12th with a victory on Sunday.
© Reuters
Udinese's search for a league win continues as they held on to secure a point in a goalless draw with Inter Milan last weekend.
Claiming draws from their last two matches against Antonio Conte's side and Atalanta will be viewed by Luca Gotti as two hard-fought points gained against clubs flying high at the top of the table but after a run of nine Serie A games without a win, Udinese are at risk of slipping into the relegation zone if they fail to convert their draws into victories soon enough.
The Friulians have attempted the third most crosses in open play in Serie A this season with 292, but a lack of a clinical edge in the final third has seen them score only twice from crosses – the joint-fewest alongside Sassuolo and Hellas Verona. Gotti may decide to change his approach if he wishes to see any improvements from his side going forward.
Udinese are currently four points above the bottom three but could jump five places up to 12th if they were to secure their first league victory since mid-December.
Spezia Serie A form: LLWWDL
Spezia form (all competitions): WWDWLL
Udinese Serie A form: LDLLDD
Team News
© Reuters
Spezia have a long list of absentees with Elio Capradossi, Federico Mattiello, Salva Ferrer, Roberto Piccoli, Giuseppe Mastinu and Jacopo Sala all missing with injuries.
Luca Vignali is back from suspension and is set to start at right-back, while forward M'Bala Nzola is expected to return to the matchday squad, although he is likely to begin the game from the bench.
Goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet is available to start, but Ivan Provedel is set to remain as Italiano's number one.
Bulgarian striker Andrej Galabinov, who scored twice against Udinese in the reverse fixture back in September, is expected to start up front.
Udinese defender Samir, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the season against Inter Milan, is suspended for this weekend's match.
New signing Fernando Llorente could make his debut and replace Kevin Lasagna in attack, who left the club to join Hellas Verona this week.
With forwards Stefano Okaka, Ignacio Pussetto and Fernando Forestieri all ruled out with injuries, Gotti may decide to name Ilija Nestorovski for only the second time in his starting lineup.
Spezia possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Vignali, Terzi, Chabot, Marchizza; Agoume, Ricci, Estevez; Gyasi, Galabinov, Farias
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Becao, Nuytinck, Bonifazi; Larsen, Mandragora, Arslan, De Paul, Zeegelaar; Pereyra; Nestorovski
We say: Spezia 2-1 Udinese
Both sides will be keen to ensure that they are not dragged into the bottom three, and a victory for either team would ease their concerns going forward. Spezia have found a way to score in recent weeks and that clinical edge in front of goal could be enough to secure a narrow victory on Sunday.
Top betting tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Spezia had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.16%). The likeliest Spezia win was 1-0 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Udinese in this match.
