Two sides nearly 800km apart will lock horns in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A on Monday, as Sport Recife welcome Ceara to the Estadio Ilha do Retiro.
Eight points separate the two teams at present, with the hosts looking to escape the relegation zone, while the visitors are hoping to close in on the top four.
Match preview
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After seven league games without a win, Sport Recfie claimed a slender 1-0 victory away at fellow strugglers America Mineiro on Tuesday.
Substitute Paulinho Moccelin scored a dramatic 86th-minute winner – his first goal of the campaign – to snatch all three points, securing just their second victory this season.
That result, however, was not enough to see Umberto Louzer's men escape from the relegation zone, as they are still one point behind Sao Paulo, who sit just outside the bottom four.
Sport Recife head into Monday's clash having won four of their five home meetings against Ceara, though they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to the Vozao in their last encounter on home soil in April.
Securing all three points this time around could see Recife climb out of the drop zone, if other results were to go their way.
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Ceara extended their unbeaten league run to eight matches when they beat Athletico Paranaense 1-0 at home last weekend.
A dramatic 98th-minute winner from Wendson – who pounced onto a loose ball inside the six-yard box following a corner – helped the hosts snatch all three points and secure their third league win in four at the Estadio Castelao.
Guto Ferreira's men have moved up to seventh place, where they finished last season, six points behind Fortaleza in third, who they will face in a week's time.
Even though Ceara have made themselves difficult to beat throughout this campaign, they are currently the highest ranked side in the Brasileiro who are yet to win away from home. In six games, they have drawn five times and suffered one defeat away at Santos in June.
A 4-0 victory against Recife four months ago will, however, have given them confidence heading into Monday's encounter, and a victory could see them move up to fifth place.
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Team News
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Sport Recife will be without Neilton (ankle), Leandro Barcia (knee), Sander (foot), Iago Maidana (abdominal) and Joao Igor (knee) due to injury.
After winning on Tuesday, Louzer is unlikely to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, but with forward Mikael yet to score in the league so far this season, he is possibly at risk of being replaced by Moccelin or Santiago Trellez.
As for Ceara, they remain without Gabriel Dias (knee), Luiz Otavio (sprained ankle), Joao Ricardo (hand) and Vitor Jacare (knee) due to injury.
Left-back Bruno Pacheco could start for the fourth successive game ahead of Kelvyn, while attacking midfielder Stiven Mendoza will be hoping he can force his way back into the starting lineup ahead of Lima.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Hayner, Thyere, Sabino, Chico; Welison, Marcao; Gustavo, Lopes, Everaldo; Moccelin
Ceara possible starting lineup:
Richard; Buiu, Lacerda, Messias, Pacheco; Sobral, Marlon; Rick, Jorginho, Mendoza; Ferreira
We say: Sport Recife 0-1 Ceara
Sport Recife will be keen to build on last week's victory with another three points on Monday, as they look to climb out of the relegation zone.
However, Ceara have made themselves difficult to beat in recent weeks and we can see them claiming a narrow victory at the Estadio Ilha do Retiro.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 44.82%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 27.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.98%) and 1-2 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 1-0 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
