Tanzania and Benin meet at Mkapa Stadium on Thursday in a battle between two sides at the top of their World Cup 2022 qualifying group.
The sides are level on points and goal difference ahead of their double-header this week, with Tanzania set to travel to Benin on Sunday.
Match preview
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Tanzania fought back to claim a 1-1 draw at Congo DR in their opening match, before holding off Madagascar for a 3-2 win in the second of last month's Group J fixtures.
The Taifa Stars squandered a two-goal lead against Madagascar, but Feisal Salum scored the only goal of the second half to earn his side three vital points.
Those results leave Tanzania unbeaten in four games and in a strong position to claim a place in the third and final round of CAF qualifying.
Benin are also well positioned to claim the only qualifying spot, though, after following up a 1-0 win against Madagascar with a 1-1 draw at home to Congo DR.
The Squirrels' form has been a little erratic over the last 11 months, having won one, drawn three and lost two of their last six games.
This week is very much do-or-die for Kim Poulsen's men as Congo DR will fancy making up the two-point deficit when they play Madagascar home and away in this window.
Benin have never previously qualified for a World Cup, while only on four occasions have they reached the Africa Cup of Nations, but their supporters have every right to dream.
Similarly, Tanzania's only taste of major tournament football was at the 1980 and 2019 AFCON, so the magnitude of these coming fixtures cannot be overstated.
Whoever finishes top of Group J will join nine other sides in a set of five two-legged playoffs for a place at Qatar 2022.
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Team News
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Tanzania have named the same squad that performed well in last month's opening batch of second-qualifying round fixtures.
The hosts will be looking to star names Mbwana Samatta and Simon Msuva, of Royal Antwerp and Wyadd AC respectively, to inspire them to victory.
As for Benin, goalkeeper Batori Douyeme has been called up for the first time in their most notable squad selection.
Steve Mounie, formerly of Huddersfield Town and now with Ligue 1 side Brest, is expected to lead the visitors' attack.
Tanzania possible starting lineup:
Manula; Kapombe, Nyoni, Mwamnyeto, Hussein; Yassin; Lusajo, Salum, Bocco, Msuva; Samatta
Benin possible starting lineup:
Allagbe; Assogba, Adenon, Hountondji, Samadou; Soukou, Adeoti, Kossi, Ahlinvi; Mounie, Pote
We say: Tanzania 1-1 Benin
The two meetings between the sides this week could go a long way to determining whether it will be Tanzania or Benin who move within a step of a place at the next World Cup.
There is absolutely nothing between them so far, sharing four points apiece and the same goal difference, and we can see that reflecting in the scoreline on Thursday.
Top tip
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tanzania win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Benin had a probability of 31.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tanzania win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.01%). The likeliest Benin win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
