With the final round of the 2021-22 Primeira Liga season this weekend, Tondela know that only a win over Boavista would guarantee a place in the relegation playoff.
Currently lying in 16th, Tondela are three points off 15th-placed Arouca, but cannot seal automatic survival due to their inferior head-to-head record.
Match preview
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With just three league wins since the turn of the year, it has been a very disappointing campaign for Tondela following mid-table security for the past several seasons.
A leaky defence has been their killer; Tondela have not kept a clean sheet in the league since October and have conceded the most of any team this season with 65.
This all led to the dismissal of manager Pako Ayestaran in March, with the club now heading into a potentially season-defining match this weekend.
An inferior head-to-head record against Arouca means that Tondela can no longer finish higher than the relegation playoff spot, but defeat - or even a draw - would leave Nuno Campos's side in danger of going down automatically.
Moreirense site just one point behind then heading into their final-day meeting with Vizela, who sit 14th in the table and are already safe from relegation.
Tondela also have an inferior head-to-head record against Moreirense, meaning that they must at least match Moreirense result in order to hang on to their playoff spot.
To the potential delight of Tondela though, Boavista are safe, comfortably mid-table, so they have nothing left to fight for this season.
Nonetheless, Boavista's top goalscorer this season with 11, Petar Musa, may look at that Tondela defence and fancy his chances to end the campaign with a goal, which could ultimately decide the home team's fate.
Goals have been hard to come by for Tondela with top goalscorer Joao Pedro only bagging seven this season, however Boavista are also near the bottom for defensive stats, so that might make it easier for Campos's team.
Should Tondela end up in the relegation playoff, it will be a matchup against Rio Ave, Casa Pia or Chaves to stay in the Portuguese top flight.
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Team News
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The injury list for Tondela is quite extensive with Naoufel Khacef, Jota Goncalves and Simone Muratore all sidelined.
Marcelo Alves will also play no part on Saturday, following his red card in Tondela's 3-0 defeat to Gil Vicente last weekend.
However, on a more positive note for the home side, Modibo Sagnan should be back in contention after serving his suspension.
As for the away side, the situation is a lot more straightforward with a full squad available.
They will be boosted by the return of Musa and Sebastian Perez, who both served suspensions, and should go straight back into the starting lineup.
In addition, winger Paul-Georges Ntep could return to Boavista's starting lineup, after his goal from the bench against Vitoria SC.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Quaresma, Sagnan, R Alves; Almeida, Undabarrena, Dantas, Borges; Agra, Daniel, Barbosa
Boavista possible starting lineup:
Bracalli; Cannon, Porozo, Abascal; Malheiro, Garcia, Perez, Ferreira; Ntep, Gorre, Hamache
We say: Tondela 0-2 Boavista
Although Tondela have everything to fight for this weekend, they just lack the quality needed to win even a crucial match like this.
They are on an extensive run without a clean sheet and it is unlikely that will change this weekend, considering the firepower of Petar Musa up front for Boavista.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 39.54%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 34.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
