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Tondela
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 34
May 18, 2021 at 8.15pm UK
Estádio João Cardoso
Pacos de Ferreira logo

Tondela
2 - 3
Pacos de Ferreira

Pedro (2', 34')
Martinez (17'), Arcanjo (62'), Anne (90')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Tanque (5', 36'), Ferreira (58')
Costa (33')

Preview: Tondela vs. Pacos de Ferreira - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Primeira Liga clash between Tondela and Pacos de Ferreira, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

With Tondela safe from the drop and visitors Pacos de Ferreira guaranteed a fifth-place finish ahead of their meeting on Wednesday, the clubs will be playing only for pride at Estadio Joao Cardoso.

The Primeira Liga will therefore draw to a close this week with both teams having achieved their objectives.


Match preview

Pako Ayestaran, now in charge of Tondela, pictured in 2016© Reuters

In their final 90 minutes of the season, Tondela will seek to bounce back from back-to-back defeats during the last few days, to end their 2020-21 campaign with a flourish on home soil.

Following a 3-1 defeat to Belenenses last week - in which the Auriverdes went ahead in the third minute, but transpired to concede three times in the next 87 - the defensively-suspect side then went down 1-0 to lowly Farense on Saturday, due to Ryan Gauld's late penalty.

Therefore, Pako Ayestaran's men have now picked up just two points from their last five league outings, having only drawn with Famalicao and Boavista since their last success in mid-April.

Coming into the final round of fixtures, then, CDT are consigned to finish in the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table, but at least are not threatened by the drop.

Former Liverpool and Valencia assistant manager Ayestaran had been targeting a highest-ever 10th or better position in the league, which is now out of reach.

On Wednesday, then, he will have to settle for ending a five-match winless run by relying on his team's relative strength at Estadio Joao Cardoso this term: Tondela have won half their games there this season and are ranked sixth in the 'home only' standings.

Their opponents, Pacos de Ferreira, have similarly thrived on home soil, but were surprisingly beaten 2-0 by Gil Vicente at their Estadio da Mata Real headquarters last Friday.

An unbeaten streak of four matches was brought to an end by their mid-table counterparts, after conceding goals in either half, and performances have been far from their best in recent weeks.

Registering just six points from their last five fixtures has seen the gap to fourth-placed Braga grow to some 13 points heading into the final round, with the Pacenses hanging onto their lofty spot due to the failings of those below them.

Nonetheless, head coach Pepa has led his charges to qualification for the Europa League and will hope to celebrate that achievement with a repeat of the win they enjoyed the last time this two teams met, in February - putting a little gloss on their underwhelming climax to the campaign.

Tondela Primeira Liga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L

Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • L



Team News

Pacos de Ferreira head coach Pepa pictured in June 2020© Reuters

Pacos coach Pepa will consider handing a recall to South African striker Luther Singh, following his substitute appearance in the defeat to Gil Vicente, with Douglas Tanque's spot most under threat.

Only long-term injury victim Mohamed Diaby is a confirmed absentee for the visitors on the final day of the season, so they will otherwise have a fully fit squad to choose from.

Tondela, meanwhile, should also come into this game with an almost full complement of players, with no fresh injury concerns for Pako Ayestaran to manage.

However, Colombian winger Jhon Murillo remains out of action with a foot injury and fellow wide man Salvador Agra was dismissed against Farense, so misses out.

Up front, Villarreal loanee Mario Gonzalez - with 15 league goals this season and six in his last six Primeira Liga starts - should return to the first XI after surprisingly being benched at the weekend.

Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Almeida, Tavares, Suarez, Ferreira; Pedro, Grau; Augusto, Olabe, Barbosa; Gonzalez

Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Michael; Silva, Marcelo, Baixinho, Rebocho; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Singh, Ze Uilton, Amaral


SM words green background

We say: Tondela 0-2 Pacos de Ferreira

The major difference between these two teams this term has been their relative defensive capabilities - with Tondela's record of conceding goals only better the Liga's bottom side.

Pacos, then, can pick up their first win of this month and will build towards European football next season with a 15th league win of the campaign.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 37.36%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.83%). The likeliest Tondela win was 1-0 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Tondela vs Pacos de Ferreira

Tondela
33.3%
Draw
40.0%
Pacos de Ferreira
26.7%
15
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Braga head coach Carlos Carvalhal pictured in December 2020
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