Two sides separated by just two points and one place in the Primeira Liga table square off on Saturday as Tondela play host to Pacos de Ferreira at the Estadio Joao Cardoso.
The hosts will head into the game seeking to get one over the visitors having lost each of the most recent four meetings between the sides since 2019.
Match preview
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Tondela's early struggles in the Primeira Liga continued last Saturday when they fell to a humbling 5-2 defeat at the hands of Vitoria de Guimaraes at the Dom Afonso Henriques.
After falling two goals behind through strikes from Joao Pedro and Iker Undabarrena, Os Vimaranenses rallied and upped the ante, hitting five consecutive goals to turn the game on its head and claim an emphatic win.
Prior to that, Tondela saw their two-game winning streak come to an end on November 28, when they lost 2-0 against Sporting Lisbon courtesy of goals from Pablo Sarabia and Paulinho.
Pako Ayestaran's men have now lost four of their most recent five league outings and this poor run of results has seen them drop to 12th place in the Primeira Liga standings, level on points with Boavista and two points above Santa Clara in the relegation playoff spot.
Their struggles this season have been down to their defensive frailties, as they boast of the league's poorest defensive record after shipping 28 goals in 13 games.
While CDT Auriverdes will be aiming to return to winning ways and move into the top half of the table, next up is an opposing side who have won each of the last four encounters between the sides and are unbeaten in seven of their last eight.
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Meanwhile, Jorge Simao's Pacos de Ferreira were once again left empty-handed in the Primeira Liga as they fell to a narrow 1-0 loss against Gil Vicente last time out.
In a cagey affair at the Estadio Capital do Movel, substitute Antoine Leautey came up trumps for the visitors as he scored the only goal of the game in the fifth minute of injury time.
Pacos de Ferreira have now lost each of their last five games across all competitions, including a 4-1 defeat against Benfica on November 19 which saw them crash out of the Taca de Portugal.
With just two wins to their name all season, Os Castores are currently 14th on the log after claiming 11 points from their opening 14 games and this has been in no small part owing to their lethargic attackers, who boast the league's second-poorest record with 10 goals scored so far.
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Team News
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Ayestaran remains unable to call upon the services of Portuguese youngster Jota Goncalves, who sustained a knee problem in September's game against Estoril Praia.
Jose Hernando will also play no part in the game after the Spanish defender received his marching orders in the game against Vitoria de Guimaraes last time out.
Pacos de Ferreira will take to the pitch without the services of Joao Vigario after the Portuguese defender picked up a severe knee injury back in August.
Other than that, there are no concerns on the injury front for the visitors and we expect Simao to name his strongest side for this crunch tie.
Abbas Ibrahim was handed his first league start of the season against Gil Vicente last Friday's and after a solid performance, the Nigerian midfielder could retain his place in the XI.
Tondela possible starting lineup:
Trigueira; Khacef, Quaresma, Sagnan, Almeida; Dantas, Undabarrena, Pedro; Agra, Dadashov, Murillo
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Ferreira; Antunes, Maracas, Lima, Silva; Pires, Ibrahim, Carlos; Silva, Ze Uilton, Denilson
We say: Tondela 1-1 Pacos de Ferreira
With just two points between the sides on the log, we expect a cagey and fiercely-contested affair on Saturday. However, we predict the spoils will be shared as both sides are evenly matched on paper.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 37.18%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (10.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
