Two teams with new coaches, who are coming off rare victories, will face each other on Sunday in a matinee encounter at BMO Field as Toronto host the Chicago Fire.
The Reds are unbeaten in their last three MLS encounters, after hanging on to a 3-2 win over FC Cincinnati, while the Fire ended a five-match winless run by blanking New York City FC 2-0.
Match preview
© Reuters
It may be too little too late, but in any event, Toronto are at least showing some encouraging signs near the tail end of what has been a forgettable campaign.
Javier Perez has seen his side win their last two matches at home as they have fought their way out of last place in the Eastern Conference.
Five of their remaining seven matches will take place at BMO Field, and if they want to make up the 17-point deficit they face for a playoff position, they cannot afford to come away without three points too often.
This is easily as good as this team have looked all season, earning results against two of the top teams in the league (a win versus Nashville SC and a draw against the Colorado Rapids) while they have also been a lot more composed at the back, especially in Colorado where they held the Rapids to only one shot on target last Saturday.
Toronto seem to be enjoying themselves on the field, and we are seeing them achieve some positive results as they are playing a lot looser and with a lot more fluidity, especially in their passing.
They are also starting to put away their chances scoring on half of their targeted efforts combined in their previous two homes games.
© Reuters
Not even a shutout win over New York City FC was enough for Raphael Wicky to keep his job, as the Fire parted ways with their manager following that victory on Wednesday.
At the very least, the now-former Swiss coach can say that he left on a high note, and there were not a lot of those to speak of during his tenure, going 12-25-14 in the regular season, finishing a point shy of the postseason in 2020.
Interim boss Frank Klopas inherits a side who seem to make one too many mistakes in virtually every match despite winning their last encounter.
They come into this game 12 points back of the Philadelphia Union for a playoff berth but have been disappointing on the road, dropping three in a row and failing to score each time.
Only one of their final six remaining games will take place at home, so even though their opponents on Sunday have more ground to make up, it seems more realistic that Toronto could make up their deficit rather than Chicago.
The main reason is that the Fire are at their worst when they are the visitors, earning only one win and a draw in their 12 road games this year.
- L
- L
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Ifunanyachi Achara and Jacob Shaffelburg have been integral parts of the TFC turnaround lately, with each scoring a goal against Cincy on Wednesday, while Yeferson Soteldo set up the equalising goal for the Reds, kickstarting the comeback versus the Orange-and-Blue.
The Toronto injury list remains a very long one as Ayo Akinola has a torn ACL, Alejandro Pozuelo, Chris Mavinga, Dom Dwyer and Tsubasa Endoh all have lower-body injuries, Jozy Altidore is suffering from a heel injury, Eriq Zavaleta is out with an undisclosed issue and Ralph Priso has yet to recover from his ankle surgery.
On Wednesday, Omar Gonzalez replaced the injured Mavinga in the starting lineup, while Achara, Michael Bradley and Shaffelburg were put in instead of Zavaleta, Noble Okello and Patrick Mullins.
The last time Chicago faced Toronto, Ignacio Aliseda was their most dangerous player, creating several quality scoring opportunities, but Alvaro Medran was the only one able to beat goalkeeper Alex Bono, who was spectacular, stopping 13 of the 14 shots that he faced.
Francisco Calvo has a right thigh injury, Brian Gutierrez has a right ankle problem, Boris Sekulic is struggling with back issues, Carlos Teran has a right thigh injury and Kenneth Kronholm remains out with a knee injury.
Federico Navarro scored his first of the season in their last match, while Robert Beric had perhaps his best outing of the year, scoring the winner early in the second half and setting up the insurance marker in the 66th minute.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Auro, Gonzalez, Lawrence, Morrow; Achara, Delgado, Okello, Osorio; Shaffelburg, Soteldo
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Omsberg, Pineda, Bornstein; F. Navarro; Aliseda, M. Navarro, Gimenez, Herbers; Ivanov, Beric
We say: Toronto 2-1 Chicago Fire
It has taken nearly the entire season for Toronto FC to show us what we all thought they were capable of at the start of the year, so look for them to play with a ton of desperation, knowing that they may need to win out to have any hope of qualifying for the postseason.
Plain and simple, Chicago cannot win on the road because their final touch has let them down, and they make far too many errors.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 52.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.25%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (6.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
