Troyes and Brest meet for the first time in the French top flight since 2013 at Stade de l'Aube on Wednesday evening.
ESTAC are currently 17th in the Ligue 1 table, one point above the relegation playoff spot, and les Pirates are 12th.
Match preview
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Both clubs were involved in penalty shootouts in the Coupe de France at the weekend, with Troyes losing to AS Nancy from the division below and Brest beating fifth-tier Dinan Lehon.
After winning the Ligue 2 title last season, Troyes have been hovering above the relegation zone throughout this campaign but have not been in the bottom three since September.
That is despite picking up just one win from their last seven matches, which was against fellow strugglers Lorient.
Despite Xavier Chavalerin opening the scoring, Laurent Batlles's side were beaten 2-1 at home by Bordeaux in the last round of league fixtures; that was their fifth loss in six games and meant that les Girondins leapfrogged them in the table.
Only Lorient (14) have scored fewer goals in Ligue 1 this season than Troyes (17), with Chavalerin one of only two players in the squad, along with Mama Balde, to net more than twice.
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However, visitors Brest have kept just three clean sheets this season and none of those have come away from home.
That said, only three teams in Ligue 1 have picked up more points on the road in 2021-22 than Michel Der Zakarian's team.
After finishing just one point above the bottom three last season, les Pirates looked as if they were in for another relegation battle this season as they failed to win any of their opening 11 matches.
However, they then went on a remarkable run of six successive wins which was ended by a 4-0 defeat to Montpellier last time out.
Nonetheless, Brest are now nine points above the relegation zone and only four points behind a European spot in the table.
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Team News
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Laurent Batlles made 11 changes for the cup fixture at the weekend, but Troyes' regular league starters should return here.
Adil Rami made his return from injury in that match, but will probably have to settle for a place on the bench.
Karim Azamoum is out for the season with an ACL injury, but it is hoped that Philippe Sandler and Metinho are able to return from the sidelines after the winter break.
Brest captain Brendan Chardonnet missed the defeat to Montpellier but returned in the cup win over Dinan Lehon and should feature.
Romain Del Castillo underwent surgery for an adductor injury last week so is absent; Sebastien Cibois is also sidelined.
Top scorer Romain Faivre has netted four goals in his last six appearances and has been linked with a move to AC Milan in January.
Troyes possible starting lineup:
Gallon; El Hajjam, Giraudon, Salmier; Kabore, Tardieu, Chavalerin, Kouame, Balde; Dingome, Ripart
Brest possible starting lineup:
Bizot; Pierre-Gabriel, Herelle, Chardonnet, Duverne; Faivre, Agoume, Belkebla, Honorat; Le Douaron, Mounie
We say: Troyes 1-2 Brest
Brest will hope that defeat to Montpellier last time out was just a blip and they will be boosted by the returning Chardonnet in defence. Troyes have tended to be on the wrong end of close encounters this season and we think it will be the same again here.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Brest had a probability of 30.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
