UEFA Nations League

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Nations League | League B

Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Turkey
2 - 2
Serbia

Calhanoglu (57'), Tufan (76')
Yokuslu (29'), Yilmaz (44')
Yilmaz (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Milinkovic-Savic (22'), Mitrovic (49' pen.)
Mitrovic (16'), Kolarov (77'), Mitrovic (81')

Preview: Turkey vs. Serbia - prediction, team news, lineups

By Ben Knapton, Senior Reporter

Published: October 12 2020 | 18:33

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:46

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's UEFA Nations League clash between Turkey and Serbia, including team news and predicted lineups.

Two sides without a win in the 2020-21 UEFA Nations League will lock horns on Wednesday as Turkey welcome Serbia to the Turk Telekom Stadium for Group B3's clash.

The hosts salvaged a point in a 1-1 draw with Russia last time out, whereas Serbia succumbed to a 1-0 defeat to Hungary in the weekend round of matches.

Match preview

Turkey goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir pictured in October 2019 © Reuters

Turkey gave a good account of themselves in their friendly battle with Germany prior to the resumption of the Nations League, eventually walking away with their heads held high after a six-goal thriller ended all square in that friendly, and the Crescent-Stars boast a wealth of talent in their ranks at this moment in time.

Senol Gunes would have been hoping to see that positive result against Germany translate into wins in October's Nations League fixtures, but it did not pan out that way for Turkey against Russia as the two sides both walked away with a point apiece at the weekend.

Indeed, Russia took the lead through Anton Miranchuk and it took a 62nd-minute equaliser from Kenan Karaman to avoid a second loss in three group matches for Turkey, who have also lost to Hungary and drawn with Serbia thus far.

However, bottom-of-the-table Serbia are in an equally bad spell of form in the Nations League as well, and Turkey can move four points clear of their group stage opponents should they take all three points on home soil this week.

Serbia's Sergej Milinkovic-Savic celebrates with teammates after scoring against Norway in the European playoff semi-finals on October 8, 2020 © Reuters

Indeed, Serbia were another team looking to build on an impressive result in the days before the Nations League resumed, with Ljubisa Tumbakovic's side overcoming Norway in extra time to set up a European Championships qualifying playoff final with Scotland last week.

However, the Eagles were put to the sword on their own turf by Hungary - a team 21 places below them in the FIFA World Rankings - as Norbert Konyves bagged the winner to leave Serbia still searching for their first three points of the 2020-21 tournament.

Tumbakovic's men were promoted to League B following a strong 2018-19 campaign, which saw them navigate group C4 without suffering defeat, but with just one point from nine so far this time around, Serbia may as well start preparing for an immediate return to League C should they fail to overcome Turkey on Wednesday.

The midweek clash represents only the second ever meeting between Turkey and Serbia, with the inaugural game in September's round of Nations League fixtures ending goalless.

Turkey Nations League form: LDD
Turkey form (all competitions): DWLDDD

Serbia Nations League form: LDL
Serbia form (all competitions): WDLDWL

Team News

Schalke 04's Ozan Kabak pictured in action in June 2020 © Reuters

Turkey will have to make do without defender Ozan Kabak owing to a suspension, meaning that Leicester City's Caglar Soyuncu is all but guaranteed to come back into the fold at centre-back.

Gunes could ring the changes for this one with plenty of players in the Turkey squad vying for starts, such as Cengiz Under, Okay Yokuslu and Yusuf Yazici, although the latter would do well to demote Hakan Calhanoglu to the bench.

As for Serbia, Aleksandar Kolarov is available for this game having served a suspension against Hungary, and the veteran defender could take Stefan Mitrovic's spot in a back three.

Sergej Milinkovic-Savic was given the night off against Russia following his heroics in the Euro 2020 playoff semi-final, but the Lazio man should return to the starting lineup for this one.

Fulham's Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is four goals away from becoming Serbia's all-time top goalscorer, is also in line to spearhead the attack ahead of Luka Jovic.

Turkey possible starting lineup:
Gunok; Celik, Soyuncu, Demiral, Meras; Yokuslu, Tufan; Under, Calhanoglu, Karaman; Yilmaz

Serbia possible starting lineup:
Rajkovic; Pavlovic, Milenkovic, Kolarov; Gacinovic, Maksimovic, Milivojevic, Ristic; Milinkovic-Savic, Tadic; Mitrovic

SM words green background

We say: Turkey 2-1 Serbia

Neither of these two sides have covered themselves in glory during the early stages of the Nations League, but Turkey and Serbia both have a number of quality players with match-winning capabilities at their disposal. Both teams know the importance of a win here and this should be an interesting battle - one that we expect Turkey to ultimately prevail in.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Turkey win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Serbia had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Turkey win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Serbia win was 0-1 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.