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England national football team
European Under-21s Championship | Group Stage
Jun 28, 2023 at 5pm UK
Chele Arena

England U21s
2 - 0
Germany U21s

Archer (4'), Elliott (21')
FT(HT: 2-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's European Under-21 Championship clash between England Under-21s and Germany Under-21s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

England Under-21s

All competitions
European Under-21 Championship
Last Game: England U21s 2-0 Israel U21s
Sunday, June 25 at 5pm in European Under-21 Championship

Germany Under-21s

All competitions
European Under-21 Championship
Last Game: Czech Rep. U21s 2-1 Germany U21s
Sunday, June 25 at 5pm in European Under-21 Championship

We said: England Under-21s 1-1 Germany Under-21s

 As much as Germany can rue bad luck for their failure to best Israel or the Czech Republic, they have been equally punished for a lack of ruthlessness, which is hardly ideal before testing their mettle against an England side yet to concede at the tournament. Carsley's rotated side can be forgiven for taking their foot off the gas as they seek to avoid injuries before the knockout stages, so overcoming the champions might be a bridge too far, but a closely-contested draw would keep the Young Lions undefeated while consigning Germany to only a fourth-ever group-stage exit. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England Under-21s win with a probability of 40.05%. A win for Germany Under-21s had a probability of 37.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a England Under-21s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.76%) and 2-0 (5%). The likeliest Germany Under-21s win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that England Under-21s would win this match.

Result
England Under-21sDrawGermany Under-21s
40.05% (1.314 1.31) 22.61% (-0.186 -0.19) 37.33% (-1.133 -1.13)
Both teams to score 66.85% (0.67700000000001 0.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
66.11% (0.90000000000001 0.9)33.88% (-0.904 -0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
44.26% (1.016 1.02)55.73% (-1.019 -1.02)
England Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.35% (0.94999999999999 0.95)17.64% (-0.955 -0.95)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.75% (1.629 1.63)48.24% (-1.633 -1.63)
Germany Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.16% (-0.12 -0.12)18.83% (0.116 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.72% (-0.199 -0.2)50.27% (0.195 0.2)
Score Analysis
    England Under-21s 40.05%
    Germany Under-21s 37.33%
    Draw 22.61%
England Under-21sDrawGermany Under-21s
2-1 @ 8.35% (0.096 0.1)
1-0 @ 5.76% (-0.091 -0.09)
2-0 @ 5% (0.076 0.08)
3-1 @ 4.83% (0.201 0.2)
3-2 @ 4.03% (0.152 0.15)
3-0 @ 2.89% (0.13 0.13)
4-1 @ 2.09% (0.148 0.15)
4-2 @ 1.75% (0.117 0.12)
4-0 @ 1.25% (0.093 0.09)
4-3 @ 0.97% (0.062 0.06)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 40.05%
1-1 @ 9.62% (-0.188 -0.19)
2-2 @ 6.97% (0.054 0.05)
0-0 @ 3.32% (-0.158 -0.16)
3-3 @ 2.24% (0.077 0.08)
Other @ 0.46%
Total : 22.61%
1-2 @ 8.03% (-0.188 -0.19)
0-1 @ 5.55% (-0.286 -0.29)
0-2 @ 4.63% (-0.257 -0.26)
1-3 @ 4.47% (-0.122 -0.12)
2-3 @ 3.88% (0.016 0.02)
0-3 @ 2.58% (-0.153 -0.15)
1-4 @ 1.87% (-0.058 -0.06)
2-4 @ 1.62% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 1.08% (-0.068 -0.07)
3-4 @ 0.94% (0.028 0.03)
Other @ 2.7%
Total : 37.33%

How you voted: England U21s vs Germany U21s

England Under-21s
60.3%
Draw
26.9%
Germany Under-21s
12.8%
78
Head to Head
Sep 27, 2022 7.45pm
U21 Friendlies
England U21s
3-1
Germany U21s
Balogun (41'), Gallagher (47'), Palmer (90')
Nmecha (35')
> Preview
Mar 26, 2019 7.45pm
International Friendlies
England U21s
1-2
Germany U21s
Solanke (43')
Dahoud (27'), Uduokhai (91')
Amiri (22'), Uduokhai (50')
> Match Report
Jun 27, 2017 5pm
Semi-Finals
England U21s
2-2
Germany U21s
 Germany U21s win 4-3 on penalties
Gray (41'), Abraham (50')
Hughes (11'), Chilwell (59'), Holgate (83')
Selke (35'), Platte (70')
Selke (19'), Gnabry (81'), Kempf (107'), Arnold (112')
> Match Report
Mar 24, 2017 7pm
U21 Friendlies
Germany U21s
1-0
England U21s
Amiri (23')
Jung (66'), Kempf (82')

Baker (25')
> Match Report
Mar 30, 2015 7.45pm
U21 Friendlies
England U21s
3-2
Germany U21s
Lingard (34'), Redmond (79'), Ward-Prowse (82')
Hofmann (15', 50')
Leitner (20')
> Match Report
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