SPAL play host to Udinese on Thursday evening knowing that they need to end their four-match winless streak as soon as possible in order to retain hope of remaining in Serie A.
Meanwhile, Udinese head into the contest at Stadio Paolo Mazza having recorded four points from their last two matches, results which have helped the club move away from the relegation zone.
Match preview
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With Udinese having gone nine matches without success either side of lockdown, manager Luca Gotti would have been fearing for his job at Stadio Friuli.
However, recording four points from games against Roma and Genoa has earned the Italian some breathing space with regards to his future.
Although conceding two late goals to draw with Genoa would have frustrated Gotti, a share of the spoils contributed to Udinese moving seven points clear of the bottom three.
I Bianconeri face a tougher schedule over the coming weeks with Napoli, Lazio and Juventus being played in quick succession later in the month.
Nevertheless, registering all three points against their hosts on Thursday evening will effectively ensure that Udinese's fate remains in their own hands until after that testing triple-header.
From SPAL's perspective, they have reached a stage where they will have to go for broke in games such as the one this week, aware that the likes of Inter Milan and Roma are still to come in July.
Ideally, Luigi Di Biagio would be looking for his side to focus on improving their efforts in defence after shipping eight goals in their last three matches.
However, with eight points now the gap to Genoa, who also possess a better goal difference, they cannot afford for that deficit to move into double figures with few matches left on their schedule.
The biggest problem has been conceding during the closing 15 minutes, with three points having been dropped through late goals for Cagliari and AC Milan respectively.
SPAL Serie A form: LWLLDL
Udinese Serie A form: DDLLWD
Team News
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Having been used as a substitute last time out, Andrea Petagna could return to the SPAL starting lineup.
However, the home side will be without Thiago Cionek, who begins a ban after picking up his 10th yellow card.
Udinese are also missing a player through suspension after Ken Sema was given his fifth yellow of the campaign at the weekend.
That should lead to Marvin Zeegelaar, also formerly of Watford, being handed a recall at left wing-back.
SPAL possible starting lineup:
Letica; Felipe, Vicari, Bonifazi, Reca; Castro, Valdifiori, Dabo; D'Alessandro, Petagna, Strefezza
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Maio, Nuytinck, Samir; Larsen, Paul, Jajalo, Fofana, Zeegelaar; Nestorovski, Lasanga
We say: SPAL 1-2 Udinese
With Gotti finally getting a positive response out of his team, we can only back the visitors to build on their recent form against opposition who have little choice but to throw caution to the wind on Thursday evening.
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 38.32%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 35.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (8.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.
