Separated by just one place and two points in the Serie A standings, Udinese and their mid-table rivals Empoli meet at the Dacia Arena on Saturday afternoon.
While the Bianconeri have won three of their last five matches to secure a top-flight place for next season, their ailing visitors - who have played two games more - are yet to taste victory in 2022.
Match preview
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Minutes after it seemed they had let two points slip from their grasp at Venezia last week, Udinese found their sixth stoppage-time goal of the season, as Rodrigo Becao struck in the 94th minute to secure a second straight win for the Friulani.
Their continuing upward trend under coach Gabriele Cioffi, who was initially appointed on caretaker terms just before the winter break, has helped them secure 13th place in the table - far removed from the relegation battle which apparently loomed at the turn of the year.
Now 14 points above the drop zone with games still in hand, Udinese are seeking to better last season's 14th-placed finish when the campaign comes to a climax next month.
Following a 5-1 thrashing of Cagliari - who they also beat 4-0 in December's reverse fixture - the Bianconeri have taken 20 points from 14 Serie A matches under Cioffi's leadership; lifting them above this week's opponents in the standings.
They have, though, gone eight league games without keeping a clean sheet - instead relying on an improved goal threat of late. With a strike partnership of Gerard Deulofeu and Beto to the fore, in 2022, no team has scored more goals than Udinese in home fixtures (13 in six matches).
So, having lost only two of their 12 previous Serie A meetings with Empoli in Udine - and the last back in 2015 - they will expect to continue such dominance this week.
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Despite enduring a lean time on Friulian soil over recent years, Empoli have actually won three of their last four encounters with Udinese in the top flight, including the reverse fixture in December - a 3-1 victory at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
In fact, that success was the first of three league and cup wins in succession for the Tuscan side, who at that point were flying high in the top of half of the table amid an excellent return to the Italian elite.
Since, though, last year's Serie B champions have not won any of their next 15 league games - drawing eight and losing seven - and in their Serie A history, they have never gone 16 in a row without victory.
After last weekend's goalless stalemate at home to Spezia, the Azzurri have equalled the club's longest winless streak at this level, which was a drought endured between December 1998 and March 1999.
Only an electric start to the season - when they toppled Juventus and Napoli, among others - plus the shortcomings of others has stopped Aurelio Andreazzoli's side descending into a scrap for survival: sitting 14th, they are still 12 points above the bottom three.
While they have started to concede fewer goals, Empoli have scored only one themselves in their last five games - Federico Di Francesco's against Hellas Verona back in March - so it is not too hard to discern the main source of their troubles.
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Team News
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Should 11-goal top scorer Beto shake off a knock which threatens his participation on Saturday, Udinese will once again pair the Portuguese striker with Gerard Deulofeu, who netted his 10th league goal of the season last week.
The Spanish forward has never scored more in a single season - also managing 10 for Watford in 2018-19 - and this is the first campaign in five years that two Udinese players have reached double figures in Serie A.
Gabriele Cioffi is expected to have a full squad available following the return from suspension of another ex-Watford player, Roberto Pereyra, who is likely to replace Tolgay Arslan or Jean-Victor Makengo in midfield. However, Isaac Success will be called upon if Beto cannot start.
Empoli, meanwhile, welcome back Sebastiano Luperto from a one-match ban, and he will challenge Mattia Viti for a place in the visitors' back four.
Midfield regular Szymon Zurkowski is suspended for accumulated bookings though, so either Leo Stulac or Marco Benassi is set to be drafted into the side. Both Liam Henderson and on-loan striker Patrick Cutrone are also pushing for starts.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Mari, Perez; Molina, Makengo, Walace, Pereyra, Udogie; Deulofeu, Success
Empoli possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Stojanovic, Luperto, Ismajli, Cacace; Benassi, Asllani, Bandinelli; Bajrami; La Mantia, Pinamonti
We say: Udinese 1-1 Empoli
While both sides are effectively safe, they will each want to wrap up the season in style. However, Empoli's inability to turn one point into three leaves them desperate for their first success in months.
The Azzurri tend to be more defensively solid away from home - conceding 20 fewer goals on the road than at the Castellani this term - and following a clean sheet last week, they can deny Udinese a third win on the bounce.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 52.56%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 23.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Empoli win was 0-1 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Udinese would win this match.
