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Udinese logo
Serie A | Gameweek 3
Oct 3, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Dacia Arena
Roma logo

Udinese
0 - 1
Roma


Okaka (79')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Pedro (55')

Preview: Udinese vs. Roma - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Udinese and Roma, including team news and predicted lineups.

Udinese and Roma will both be looking to pick up their first wins of the Serie A season at the third attempt when the two sides lock horns at the Dacia Arena on Saturday.

The hosts have lost to Hellas Verona and Spezia Calcio thus far, whereas Roma stole a point against Juventus after suffering a defeat of their own to Verona.


Match preview

Udinese boss Luca Gotti in November 2019.© Reuters

A home fixture against newly-promoted Spezia Calcio, on paper, would appear to be a routine three points for Udinese, but Le Zebrette suffered a dismal defeat to the visitors in midweek.

Spezia's Andrej Galabinov bagged a brace to inflict a second defeat in as many matches upon Udinese, who are one of only five teams without a point on the board after two games of the 2020-21 campaign.

Luca Gotti's men had the advantage of an extra man for the final 25 minutes against Spezia but were unable to find a way through in the dying embers of the game, leaving Udinese fans extremely frustrated at their poor start to the season.

A fixture against Italian giants Roma would not seem to do Udinese any favours in their bid to turn their fortunes around, but Paulo Fonseca's men are also winless since the new campaign kicked off.

Paulo Fonseca pictured as Roma boss in August 2019© Reuters

While Roma are yet to register their first three points of the 2020-21 season, holding champions Juventus to a 2-2 draw is certainly a respectable result nonetheless.

Jordan Veretout and Cristiano Ronaldo both netted a brace for their respective sides - one each from the penalty spot - although Roma were unable to take advantage of Adrien Rabiot's sending-off just after the hour mark.

Juventus have not been their usual dominant selves over the past couple of months, but Fonseca's men will no doubt be satisfied with a point against the reigning champions as they bid to go one better this weekend.

However, Udinese did take the spoils in a 2-0 victory when the sides last faced off in July, although Roma stormed to a 4-0 win in the most recent meeting at the Dacia Arena and have won 12 of the last 14 matches between the two clubs.

Udinese Serie A form: LL

Roma Serie A form: LD


Team News

Roberto Pereyra celebrates scoring during the Premier League game between Watford and Arsenal on September 15, 2019© Reuters

Udinese have re-signed Roberto Pereyra from Watford at a time where they are crying out for some impetus going forward, although the Argentine is lacking match fitness and will not be involved so soon.

Gotti otherwise has no fresh injury concerns heading into the weekend showdown, with Jens Larsen, Rolando Mandragora and Mato Jajalo all set to miss out again.

The Udinese boss could hand a start to Thomas Ouwejan on the left-hand side in place of Marvin Zeegelaar, but Tolgay Arslan is a doubt after missing out the defeat to Spezia through injury.

As for Roma, Bruno Peres came off the bench after recovering from coronavirus, and the 30-year-old will be vying for a start over Davide Santon on Saturday.

Diego Perotti and Javier Pastore remain on the treatment table alongside long-term absentee Nicolo Zaniolo, while Federico Fazio is doubtful with an ankle sprain, but Fonseca is not expected to make wholesale changes for the trip to Udinese.

Pau Lopez has conceded his place in goal to 37-year-old Antonio Mirante during the opening stages of the new season, but the veteran shot-stopper has shipped five goals in Roma's first two matches.

Udinese possible starting lineup:
Musso; Becao, Samir, De Maio; Ter Avest, Arslan, De Paul, Coulibaly, Ouwejan; Okaka, Lasagna

Roma possible starting lineup:
Mirante; Mancini, Kumbulla, Ibanez; Peres, Veretout, Pellegrini, Spinazzola; Pedro, Mkhitaryan; Dzeko


SM words green background

We say: Udinese 1-3 Roma

Udinese will be desperate to put things right following their painful defeat to Spezia, but they are coming up against a Roma side who are equally determined to get a first win of the season under their belts. The Giallorossi are historically strong in this fixture and boast a superior quality of players, so we are backing Fonseca's men to come out on top.


Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data


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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 52.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Udinese had a probability of 22.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-2 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Udinese win it was 1-0 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Roma in this match.


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Game History

Who will win Saturday's Serie A clash between Udinese and Roma?

Udinese
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Draw
0.0%
Roma
0.0%
0
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Chris Smalling in action for Roma in November 2019
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