Two sides scrapping for Serie A survival meet at the Dacia Arena on Saturday, as Udinese host Sampdoria, who sit just below them in the standings.
Separated only by goal difference - though the Bianconeri have played two fewer games - the teams shared six goals in October's reverse fixture, but both will be in pursuit of maximum points this time, against a relegation rival.
Match preview
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Having had a hand in the leadership of Serie A last time out, when holding Milan to a 1-1 draw at San Siro, Udinese will hope to build some momentum on the back of consecutive draws against top-seven sides.
Second-half substitute Destiny Udogie made an impact shortly after coming off the bench, as he bundled home an equaliser which ultimately secured a point for the Bianconeri - just days after sharing the spoils with Lazio back in Udine.
However, Udinese have now won only one of their last seven Serie A games - a 2-0 victory versus Torino last month - and are mired in trouble at the wrong end of the table with games running out to reverse their decline.
Sitting 14th heading into the weekend, the Friulani are just four points clear of the bottom three, but do still retain at least one game in hand on their bottom-half counterparts, following a spate of COVID-19 cancellations around the turn of the year.
Gabriele Cioffi's side may have enough nous and know-how to avoid slipping into the second tier, but after hosting Sampdoria this week, they will face Roma and Napoli within the next fortnight - so their struggles could be set to continue for a while yet.
Furthermore, they have lost their last two Serie A home games against their next opponents, but Samp have been a shadow of their former selves this term and could be there for the taking.
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The largely positive trend that started since Marco Giampaolo returned to the Sampdoria hotseat was brutally ended by a 4-0 reverse to Atalanta on Monday night, when they found themselves two goals down before the half-hour mark and were never able to recover.
As a result, the Blucerchiati have lost four successive Serie A away matches without scoring a single goal for the first time since 2011 and will travel to Udine in dire need of putting a stop to that streak.
The only side yet to draw a single top-flight game since the turn of the year - losing six times in the process - Samp occupy 15th spot in the table but remain uncomfortably close to the dotted line.
Positive results against Sassuolo and Empoli shortly after Giampaolo's reappointment have proved that they can at least prevail over sides just above them in the table, while defeats to Atalanta and Milan were perhaps to be expected - so taking on Udinese will be seen as an opportunity to improve their modest away record.
Prior to an entertaining 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture, Sampdoria had won each of their previous five Serie A meetings with the Bianconeri by an aggregate scoreline of 12-3, so recent precedent is also on their side.
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Team News
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Udinese prepare for Saturday's game with an almost fully available squad, but Dutch defender Bram Nuytinck is not expected to participate due to injury.
Therefore, the hosts may keep an unchanged starting XI, though last week's goalscorer Destiny Udogie could displace Marvin Zeegelaar on the left flank of Gabriele Cioffi's favoured 3-5-2 formation.
As part of the front pair with top scorer Beto, support striker Gerard Deulofeu could become the first Udinese player to have a hand in 10 Serie A goals this season: so far he has scored seven himself and laid on two.
Meanwhile, Sampdoria may be without Ronaldo Vieira, as the midfielder - only recently returned from a long layoff - has been absent from training with an ankle injury sustained as a substitute on Monday.
Kristoffer Askildsen is on the brink of a comeback after a knee problem, but will make the bench at best, while long-term absentees Mikkel Damsgaard and Manolo Gabbiadini continue the road to recovery from their respective injuries.
In addition to Vieira and Askildsen, the visitors will have Morten Thorsby sidelined through suspension, so on-loan Stefano Sensi and Tomas Rincon could start in midfield. Both Antonio Candreva and Bartosz Bereszynski are back from one-match bans.
In attack, veteran striker Fabio Quagliarella has been directly involved in seven goals in his last six Serie A meetings with former club Udinese, after scoring in the reverse fixture.
Udinese possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Becao, Mari, Perez; Molina, Arslan, Walace, Pereyra, Udogie; Deulofeu, Beto
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Falcone; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Murru; Rincon, Ekdal, Candreva; Sensi; Caputo, Quagliarella
We say: Udinese 2-1 Sampdoria
For all their troubles, Udinese have proved tough to beat on Friulian soil this term, so are set to seize their chance to pull further away from the drop zone against a Samp side which does not travel well.
The home side have a couple of tricky fixtures to follow this match, before a series of battles with bottom-half counterparts, so will be doubly keen to take the initiative.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Udinese win with a probability of 51.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 22.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Udinese win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.04%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (7.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Udinese in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Udinese.
