Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between United Arab Emirates and Iraq, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Both playoff-chasing United Arab Emirates and Iraq meet in what is shaping up to be a potentially defining match for Group A on Tuesday evening.

The pair sit level on two points in the midst of a tight battle for the singular playoff spot in Asian World Cup Qualifying, with Lebanon the third team in the mix.

Match preview

Currently above their opponents on goal difference, the UAE have the advantage of being the only side in the playoff hunt that have scored a goal during the third-round so far.

An opening match goalless draw with Lebanon, was followed up by another stalemate, this time a 1-1 with bottom-placed Syria.

A disappointing defeat to Iran in the first match of the current international break has left the UAE on two points, with their dream of a return to the World Cup for the first time since 1990 very much still alive.

No side registered a poorer return from the 1990 World Cup than the UAE, who lost all three of their group stage matches, whilst conceding a tournament-high 11 goals.

Yet to feature in any of the eight finals since, a spot at Qatar 2022 may not be completely out of the question, should they secure progression to the playoffs.

However, a third draw from four matches of third-round qualifying may be on the cards too, given the UAE's almost inseparable head-to-head record with opponents Iraq.

This week's matchup will be the 30th game between the pair, with Iraq having won 10 matches, a further 10 being drawn and the UAE victorious in nine.

Both sides have enjoyed spells of superiority in the past, with the UAE looking to have worked out Iraq's number in recent years, having lost only two of the previous nine meetings.

Matches have stretched across World Cup Qualifiers, the Gulf Cup and the Asian Cup, including the third-place playoff in the continent's premier competition during the 2015 tournament, a match the UAE triumphed in 3-2.

If a replica of that result is to happen on Tuesday, Iraq will have to do something they have only managed once since November 2019 and score twice in a World Cup Qualifier.

Similarly to the UAE, the Lions of Mesopotamia have been shrewd operators in recent years, yet they are yet to get off the goalscoring mark in round three, having drawn a blank in their trio of fixtures so far.

Following an impressive goalless draw against South Korea, optimism was high within the Iraqi camp for their clash with Iran, yet a 3-0 drubbing left the side bottom of Group A after two matches.

They were able to save some face in their most recent fixture, registering another 0-0 against Lebanon, yet if they have hopes of sneaking into the playoffs, Iraq will need to find their feet in front of goal quickly.

United Arab Emirates World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Iraq World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Team News

Fahad Talib has kept two clean sheets already in third-round qualification and he will retain his number one spot in the Iraqi goal for the fixture against the UAE, with the 26-year-old targeting another shutout.

For full-back Ali Adnan, he may be looking to use the international break not only to help his national team's cause, but also put himself in the shop window.

Adnan has been without a club since he was released from the Vancouver Whitecaps in July, yet has still started for Iraq and will likely feature on the right-hand side of the defence.

With 124 caps for the national team, Alaa Abdul-Zahra holds the most experience within the Iraqi camp, but the 33-year-old has been left on the bench in recent qualifiers, but could feature should they need a goal.

Abdul-Zahra has 17 goals to his name for Iraq, with his most recent coming in a 6-2 friendly victory over Nepal in May.

Ali Khasif is an icon of UAE football and the veteran goalkeeper will feature between the sticks against Iraq, in what will be the shot-stopper's 61st cap since making his debut 12 years ago.

Comfortably leading the way as the UAE's all-time record goalscorer, unsurprisingly Ali Mabkhout has the side's only goal in third-round qualifying and he will lead the line against Iraq.

With 77 goals Mabkhout is also the clear top goal scorer in the current squad, as no current UAE player has netted over six international goals.

One man looking to increase his attacking returns will be Caio Canedo Correa, who was born in Brazil, but alongside Sebastian Tagliabue, became the first Latin American to represent the UAE when he made his debut in 2020.

United Arab Emirates possible starting lineup:
Khasif; Khamis, Al Attas, Abdulrahman, Al-Ahbabi; Ibrahim, Abdalla Ramadan, Lima, Hassan, Hamad; Mabkhout

Iraq possible starting lineup:
Talib; Adnan, Attiya, Jabbar, Mhawi; Rasan, Attwan, Ali, Abdul-Kadhim; Hussein, Bayesh

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We say: United Arab Emirates 1-1 Iraq

A win would surely put the victorious side in pole position to secure the single playoff spot, whilst keeping their World Cup dream alive.

Plenty is riding on this fixture for both Iraq and the UAE and with both sides partial to a draw in qualifying so far, do not rule out another stalemate here.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Amos Murphy

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a United Arab Emirates win with a probability of 50.14%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 23.05%.

The most likely scoreline for a United Arab Emirates win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.45%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.