Champions League semi-finalists Villarreal will be bidding to make it back-to-back victories in La Liga when they welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Ceramica on Tuesday night.
The Yellow Submarine are currently seventh in the table, six points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad, while Valencia occupy 10th position, seven points behind their opponents in this match.
Match preview
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Villarreal spectacularly booked their spot in the semi-finals of the Champions League by drawing 1-1 with Bayern Munich in the second leg of their quarter-final last week, and Unai Emery's side are now preparing for a two-legged last-four clash against Liverpool, with the first leg due to take place at Anfield on April 27.
The Yellow Submarine's league form has been patchy in recent weeks, losing three of their four matches between March 5 and April 2, but they picked up a point at home to Athletic Bilbao on April 9 before recording a 2-1 victory over Getafe on Saturday courtesy of goals from Gerard Moreno and Manu Trigueros.
Villarreal are currently seventh in the La Liga table, six points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad, so it is going to be very tough for them to claim a top-six finish this term, and they are only actually seven points ahead of 10th-placed Valencia, so it is not impossible to see them slide down the table.
Emery's team have been impressive at home in La Liga this season, picking up 32 points from their 16 matches, but Valencia's away form has been relatively strong, claiming 20 points from 16 matches.
Villarreal have actually lost their last two league games against Valencia, including a 2-0 defeat at Mestalla earlier this season, but they won 2-1 when the pair last locked horns at Estadio de la Ceramica in October 2020.
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Valencia will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 home defeat to Osasuna on Saturday, and Los Che have only been victorious in one of their last five league matches during a disappointing run.
Jose Bordalas's side will face Real Betis in the Copa del Rey final next weekend, though, and are on course to better their 13th-place finish in Spain's top flight last term.
Valencia will take on Villarreal, Levante, Athletic Bilbao, Real Betis, Espanyol and Celta Vigo in their final six league matches of the campaign, and it is not impossible to see them catching Villarreal in seventh, but they are 13 points behind sixth-placed Real Sociedad on the same number of matches (32).
Los Che are currently seven points clear of 13th-placed Elche, meanwhile, so a top-half finish seems likely, which would be a step in the right direction after such a disappointing 2020-21 campaign.
Bordalas's team, as mentioned, have been relatively strong away from home this term, winning five, drawing five and losing six of their 16 matches to collect 20 points.
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Team News
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Villarreal will again be without the services of Alberto Moreno through injury, but the home side are otherwise in strong shape when it comes to their first-team squad.
As expected, head coach Emery rung the changes against Getafe following the Champions League win over Bayern, but this match comes eight days before the first leg of their European Cup semi-final with Liverpool, so a strong team is expected to take to the field.
Indeed, Emery will be wary of over-rotating and losing momentum heading into the clash at Anfield, although it could be Gerard Moreno's turn to have a rest, with Arnaut Danjuma potentially returning alongside Paco Alcacer, while the likes of Etienne Capoue, Juan Foyth and Raul Albiol could also feature.
As for Valencia, Gabriel Paulista, Yunus Musah and Maxi Gomez all missed out against Osasuna through injury, and the trio remain injury doubts for the contest with Villarreal.
Head coach Bordalas is likely to make changes from the side that lost last time out, with Carlos Soler, Marcos Andre and Thierry Correia all pushing to return to the starting XI.
However, if Gomez is again ruled out, Hugo Duro could retain his spot alongside Goncalo Guedes in attack, with Bryan Gil playing off the left despite struggling to have an impact against Osasuna.
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Rulli; Foyth, Albiol, P Torres, Pedraza; Lo Celso, Parejo, Capoue, Trigueros; Alcacer, Danjuma
Valencia possible starting lineup:
Mamardashvili; Correia, Diakhaby, Guillamon, Gaya; Andre, Soler, Racic, Gil; Duro, Guedes
We say: Villarreal 1-0 Valencia
Villarreal's focus will be on the upcoming clash with Liverpool, but they must remain professional in the league, and with Emery likely to select a strong side here, we are expecting the Yellow Submarine to collect all three points in front of their own supporters.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 58.59%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 18.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
