Dallas are hoping that a new face on the sidelines can turn around their fortunes in the Western Conference as they travel to beautiful British Columbia to face the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday at BC Place Stadium.
The Caps earned a big 1-1 draw on the road against the Colorado Rapids last weekend, while the Toros are now seven points back of a playoff position after dropping a 3-2 decision to the Houston Dynamo.
Match preview
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Vancouver continue to hold their own against the top teams in the Western Conference, but despite earning points in 11 of their last 12 MLS affairs, they cannot seem to crack the top seven, as they currently sit four points back of that mark after 24 matches played.
Since replacing Marc Dos Santos with Vanni Sartini, they have earned seven out of a possible 12 points, putting themselves in the playoff conversation after being out of it for a long time.
The most noticeable difference with this team under Sartini has been their composure late in matches, which was an area in which they had all kinds of trouble with a few months ago.
Defending set-pieces has been an issue for them throughout 2021, and it came back to bite them last week as they were caught flat-footed off a Rapids corner just before the half-hour mark, while their zone marking left Danny Wilson with a lot of space to power home a header and put Colorado in front.
To their credit, though, Vancouver have usually found a way to respond after conceding, which is a trait that they have been able to do throughout the year, collecting points in eight games in which they were in a losing position at one point.
This season, they have won three of their four games played at BC Place Stadium, while looking well organised at the back and sharper in attack with eight goals in those games.
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A fourth straight match without a win was enough for Dallas to pull the plug on Luchi Gonzalez, who was dismissed after a late comeback against Houston fell short on Saturday, losing 3-2.
After qualifying for the postseason in each of their past two campaigns, the Toros and new manager Marco Ferruzzi will be in desperation mode to try to get themselves back into the playoff picture, currently in 11th in the standings.
Dallas have rarely looked like a playoff team this year, and with only eight games remaining in the regular season, changing coaches at this stage of the campaign could be too little too late.
They have two games remaining away from home following this one, so that should play into their favour seeing as they have only lost twice at Toyota Stadium this year, but you have to think that collecting single points at this stage will not do them any good in the playoff chase.
After holding the defending Western Conference champions to just one goal in early August, their defensive game has gone downhill away from home, conceding 14 goals in their last five road fixtures.
The Toros have not beaten Vancouver at BC Place since 2018, and they were fortunate to earn a point against them in their previous encounter this year in the lone star state, as they benefitted from an own-goal in the 94th minute to draw 2-2.
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Team News
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Caps defender Ranko Veselinovic must feel a little hard done by at times this season, as his own-goal against Dallas cost his side two points the last time they faced them, and he failed to clear a shot off the line against the Timbers as that own goal gave Portland a 1-0 win in their last home game.
Deiber Caicedo has been a force for this team going forward as he set up the equaliser for Brian White versus the Burgundy Boys, putting him in a tie with Cristian Dajome with four assists on the year while White scored his fifth goal of this campaign.
Caio Alexandre has a left foot problem, Cristian Gutierrez has a left quad strain and Erik Godoy is nursing a right foot injury.
For Dallas, Beni Redzic has an ankle sprain, Johnny Nelson underwent back surgery and could be gone for the year, Ryan Hollingshead is out with a foot injury and Jimmy Maurer remains questionable with a thigh issue.
Jader Obrian scored two late goals for Dallas last week in Houston, putting him four back of Ricardo Pepi, who has not scored in his previous two games.
Eddie Munjoma collected his first assist of the season last week, while Jesus Ferreira set up another goal himself, putting him into a tie for the team lead in assists this year with Szabolcs Schon at six.
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Jungwirth, Rose, Veselinovic; Dajome, Teibert, Owusu, Caicedo; Gauld, Cavallini, White
Dallas possible starting lineup:
Megiolaro; Munjoma, Hedges, Bressan, Che; Acosta, Quignon; Schon, Ferreira, Obrian; Pepi
We say: Vancouver Whitecaps 3-1 Dallas
Usually, a coaching change can produce early success for a team, but in the Toros' case, leadership was not the only issue as they have been susceptible to conceding on the road all year long, and the Caps have been splendid in transition on their home field.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Dallas had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Dallas win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vancouver Whitecaps in this match.
