Velez Sarsfield's Copa Libertadores campaign resumes on Wednesday when they host Barcelona SC for the first leg of their last-16 tie, in what will be the first competitive meeting between the two sides.
The Fort qualified in second place from Group G after accumulating 10 points from their six matches, while the visitors finished top of Group B, winning four and drawing one of their six group games.
Match preview
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After an eight-week break from football, Velez will be back in action at the Estadio Jose Amalfitani, hoping to progress to the quarter-finals for the first time in nine years.
A goalless draw in their final group-stage fixture away at Flamengo on May 28 was their last competitive match. This came after Velez finished at the summit of the Argentinian Apertura a few weeks earlier, winning 10 of their 13 league games.
The Fort did then, however, lose their quarter-final clash against Racing Club, who won 4-2 on penalties after both sides failed to score in 120 minutes.
Former Southampton boss Mauricio Pellegrino will now be preparing for the return of the Primeira Division Clausura this weekend, but he must first turn his attention to the Copa Libertadores, a competition they won for the first and only time back in 1994.
Velez have never faced Barcelona SC before, but having won six of their last eight matches on home soil across all competitions, they will fancy their chances of claiming another victory on Wednesday.
Unlike Velez, Barcelona SC's domestic campaign has continued, with four matches played since their 3-1 victory against Santos in their final Copa Libertadores group-stage match on May 27.
After losing 1-0 in the Supercopa de Ecuador final to LDU Quito at the end of June, the Bullfighters recently missed the chance to climb to the top of the Primera Etapa, after drawing 1-1 at home against Emelec, who are currently three points ahead of them with just one league match remaining.
Their final league game against Macara is sandwiched in between their last-16 ties with Velez, though head coach Fabian Bustos is keen for his players to prioritise the first leg and take a positive result into the reverse fixture next week.
Barcelona SC – two-time Copa Libertadores finalists, in 1990 and 1998 – travel to Velez on Wednesday after failing to score in three of their last four games on the road, including their last two away matches in the group stages.
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Team News
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Velez left-back Francisco Ortega will miss the first leg after being dismissed in the final moments of their goalless draw with Flamengo in the group stages.
Twenty-year-old Tomas Cavanagh, who has yet to play this campaign, could be brought into the first XI as a result, with right-back Tomas Guidara and centre-backs Luis Abram and Lautaro Giannetti set to join him in the back four.
Talented playmaker Thiago Almada is expected to play in the number 10 role, behind lone striker Juan Martin Lucero, though Cristian Tarragona will also be pushing for a start in attack.
As for Barcelona SC, Gabriel Marques, Dario Aimar and Pedro Velasco all remain out with long-term injuries sustained earlier this year.
Leonel Quinonez and Mario Pineida have both been rotated at left-back so far this season and as the latter started the last match, Quinonez could be brought in for Wednesday's game.
Nixon Molina and Bruno Pinatares are set to keep their places in central midfield, while striker Carlos Garces is likely to be supported in attack by wingers Emmanuel Martinez and Michael Hoyos.
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Guidara, Giannetti, Abram, Cavanagh; Caseres, Mancuello; Bouzat, Almeda, Janson; Lucero
Barcelona SC possible starting lineup:
Burrai; Castillo, Leon, Riveros, Quinonez; Molina, Pinatares; Hoyos, Diaz, Martinez; Garces
We say: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC have looked solid defensively so far in this competition, conceding just three goals from their six group-stage matches, and Velez may struggle to break them down.
The hosts may also experience some rustiness on Wednesday, having not played a match in 45 days, and that could favour the visitors who we feel could seal a slender victory in the first leg.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 42.86%. A win for Barcelona SC had a probability of 33.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.77%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Barcelona SC win was 1-2 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.
