Having picked up just five points from their past eight games, Fiorentina travel to meet mid-table Hellas Verona on Tuesday in danger of drifting into relegation trouble.
Three defeats from four have left the Viola looking over their shoulders at Serie A's drop zone, while ninth-placed Verona are seeking to secure successive top-half finishes since returning to the top flight.
Match preview
© Reuters
Following their dismal 3-1 reverse at Sassuolo on Saturday - where they had just 27% of the possession and saw Giacomo Bonaventura's superb strike rendered meaningless by leaking three second-half goals - the threat of relegation still lingers for Fiorentina.
Having also conceded three times against Atalanta in their previous outing, they now face the final seven games of the season only five points clear of Cagliari - who sit just below the dreaded dotted line.
Beppe Iachini's side have picked up only 30 points after 30 matches for the first time since 2001-02, when they were relegated at the end of the season. So, still to secure their top-flight place for next term, the Viola now take on Verona - the first of four members of the top nine they must face during the run-in.
The Tuscan outfit's dire away form is mostly responsible for their drift down the standings, as their record on the road is better only than Serie B-bound pair Parma and Crotone - with a mere two successes in 15 games away from the Artemio Franchi.
In total, Fiorentina have won only one of their last nine league games under Iachini - who returned to the dugout following Cesare Prandelli's unexpectedly early departure last month - the last of which was against Udinese in October. Very much a low-cost temporary measure, the club's supposedly ambitious hierarchy may end up regretting their decision to re-hire the former Palermo boss come the end of another troubled season.
With club president Rocco Commisso declaring a media silence and sending his team to a 'ritiro' (training retreat) after their latest defeat, there will at least be no distractions for the struggling side ahead of their trip north.
© Reuters
Verona's 1-0 loss to Lazio last week saw Ivan Juric's well-drilled side concede their first goal in three games and their so-far successful campaign has been built on an admirably resilient rearguard.
However, an uncharacteristic second-half collapse at Sampdoria on Saturday brought about a second straight defeat - with the Scaligeri shipping three goals to their closest rivals in the Serie A standings. In all, they have now lost five of their last six games.
Still hoping to hold onto a top-half finish next month, it is the misfiring Hellas attack which poses Juric most cause for concern. While they were unable to muster a single shot on target against Lazio, their only goal at the weekend came through a delicious free-kick from wing-back Danko Lazovic.
Once more highlighting their ongoing problems in the final third, Samp supremo Claudio Ranieri could make a triple substitution at half-time - bringing on Keita Balde, Antonio Candreva and Manolo Gabbiadini, with all three contributing to their goals - as the short-handed Juric could only turn to goal-shy loan striker Andrea Favilli.
Centre-forward Kevin Lasagna had been far from prolific for former club Udinese before joining the Gialloblu in January as cover for injury-stricken summer signing Nikola Kalinic and has also failed to fire since moving to Veneto. As a result, Verona have the weakest scoring record in the top half of the table.
Nonetheless, the hosts will expect to find the net against Fiorentina's dubious defence this time out, with their visitors providing a presentable opportunity to get back on track ahead of a trip to leaders Inter Milan next week.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- L
- D
- L
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Verona captain Miguel Veloso was unexpectedly absent from the squad which faced Sampdoria on Saturday, as he is expected to undergo surgery on his neck. The veteran midfielder - who has contributed two goals and two assists in 20 Serie A appearances this season - has opted to address the long-running problem and may not return until the final fixtures of the season.
In his absence, Stefano Sturaro and Antonin Barak surprisingly started in the middle, though Adrien Tameze was introduced from the bench and could start on Tuesday.
Ronaldo Vieira and Mert Cetin are expected to remain unavailable for the hosts though, while Nikola Kalinic continues his comeback from a thigh strain and hopes to feature on the bench.
Only ineffective January signing Aleksandr Kokorin is set to miss out for Fiorentina with a thigh strain, as the away side travel at close to full strength.
Defensive mainstay Lucas Martinez Quarta was dropped at the weekend, but is likely to return to Beppe Iachini's starting XI, while young Christian Kouame is in contention to partner top scorer Dusan Vlahovic up front, as 38-year-old Franck Ribery may struggle to start twice within a matter of days.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Silvestri; Lovato, Dawidowicz, Dimarco; Faraoni, Tameze, Sturaro, Lazovic; Barak, Zaccagni; Lasagna
Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Milenkovic, Pezzella, Martinez Quarta; Caceres, Castrovilli, Pulgar, Bonaventura, Biraghi; Kouame, Vlahovic
We say: Hellas Verona 1-1 Fiorentina
A wavering Verona side are in peril of finishing another fine campaign with a whimper due to their lack of final-third punch, but should surely be able to penetrate Fiorentina's back three at the Bentegodi.
With the Viola still very much in need of points to secure their Serie A status, their away record has been woeful, so salvaging a point - with help from prolific front man Dusan Vlahovic - would be regarded as a good result for the visitors.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 42.75%. A win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 31.17% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest Hellas Verona win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fiorentina would win this match.
