Separated by just one place in the Serie A standings, mid-table rivals Hellas Verona and Torino meet at Stadio Bentegodi on Saturday evening, for their penultimate fixture of the 2021-22 campaign.
While both were beaten by top-three clubs last weekend, the pair sit inside the top half, with the visitors now requiring a win to retain hope of overtaking their ninth-placed counterparts.
Match preview
© Reuters
Having failed to win successive Serie A matches since January, last Sunday, Verona squandered a one-goal advantage to find themselves on the wrong end of a 3-1 scoreline against league leaders Milan.
After a Sandro Tonali-inspired comeback by the Rossoneri rendered Hellas captain Davide Faraoni's opener meaningless, the Scaligeri have yet to repeat the same result throughout their last 14 league games.
Calcio's kings of inconsistency are increasingly unpredictable, but remain safely inside the top half of the table by a margin of five points from Sassuolo, who occupy 11th, and Igor Tudor's first season in charge is close to concluding in relative success.
Taking over early in the season, with Verona still struggling to overcome the loss of coach Ivan Juric to Torino last summer, Tudor has moulded a side which have suffered just three losses from their last 11 league fixtures - all of which were against teams fighting it out for the Scudetto.
Also leading this week's visitors by five points with only two games remaining, they should now surpass last year's finish of 10th under Juric, and they face their old boss in the second of back-to-back outings at the Bentegodi before the campaign concludes with a tough trip to Lazio.
© Reuters
While Ivan Juric steered his new club to a 1-0 victory over his former employers in December's reverse fixture - when Torino enjoyed a one-man advantage for more than an hour - they must win both remaining matches to have a chance of usurping Saturday's hosts in the standings.
Il Toro failed to close the gap between the teams after falling to a 1-0 defeat at home to Napoli last weekend, which saw Etrit Berisha save Lorenzo Insigne's penalty - the second time the Italy forward has failed from the spot against Torino this term; against two different goalkeepers - only to later be beaten by Fabian Ruiz's deflected shot: a desperate lunge from Koffi Djidji supplying the unfortunate touch.
Following a 3-1 win at Empoli a week earlier, Juric's men had gone unbeaten in their six previous Serie A matches - both winning and drawing three times - to consolidate their place in the top 10, but Sassuolo have the same number of points and could yet overtake them.
Having finally beaten Verona for the first time in eight top-flight encounters back in Turin, the Granata will certainly be targeting a seasonal double to complete their away schedule with a rare victory - they have won on just four of their 18 previous road trips this term.
Concluding a much improved campaign, compared to recent relegation battles, Torino then host Roma next week, when they sign off for the summer in front of their own fans.
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
After scoring against Milan last week, Verona skipper Davide Faraoni will sit out Saturday's game, as he serves a suspension for accumulated bookings - opening the door for Fabio Depaoli to deputise on the right flank.
That enforced switch may be the only change made by head coach Igor Tudor, as the hosts' well-established forward trio of Antonin Barak, Gianluca Caprari and leading scorer Giovanni Simeone (16 goals) have already netted 39 times between them this season. They will feature as part of a familiar 3-4-2-1 formation, should Barak be passed fit in time.
Another contender could be centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz, who recently returned to full training after a lengthy layoff, but the Poland international is more likely to be on the bench, with only reserve goalkeeper Ivor Pandur sidelined by injury.
Though Torino will have Sasa Lukic back from a one-match ban, which interrupted an unexpected burst of goalscoring form, wing-back Wilfried Singo is now suspended, so Ola Aina should be drafted in at the Bentegodi.
Paraguayan striker Antonio Sanabria is still struggling with a muscular injury, so Andrea Belotti leads the line on Saturday; aiming to reach double figures for a seventh successive Serie A season - he currently sits on eight goals.
Meanwhile, Lukic's return could see Samuele Ricci drop out of Ivan Juric's XI, which generally lines up in a similar shape to that employed by his Croatian compatriot Tudor.
Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Ceccherini, Gunter, Casale; Depaoli, Ilic, Tameze, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone
Torino possible starting lineup:
Berisha; Izzo, Bremer, Rodriguez; Aina, Pobega, Lukic, Vojvoda; Brekalo, Praet; Belotti
We say: Hellas Verona 2-1 Torino
Hellas have won half of their home fixtures to this late point in the season - demonstrating their impressive form in front of the Gialloblu faithful.
Also posing an attacking threat from several sources, the hosts are almost certain to find the net at least once, and can therefore complete back-to-back wins over their former manager.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hellas Verona win with a probability of 39.85%. A win for Torino had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hellas Verona win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Torino win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
