VfL Bochum and Mainz 05 meet at the Vonovia Ruhrstadion on Saturday afternoon on the second weekend of the new Bundesliga season.
The two sides began their new campaigns in different manners last weekend, with a defeat for Bochum but a win for Mainz.
Match preview
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Bochum began their return to the Bundesliga with a 1-0 defeat away to Champions League side Wolfsburg on the opening weekend, with this being their first season in the top flight of German football since the 2009-10 campaign.
The scoreline flattered the newly-promoted side after the worst possible start to the new season; Robert Tesche conceded a penalty just four minutes in after a deliberate handball and was sent off for his actions.
Despite the resulting penalty being missed, Bochum fell behind shortly after and never stood much chance of getting anything from the match from then on.
Were it not for a spirited performance from goalkeeper Manuel Riemann, the scoreline could have been embarrassing, as they survived wave after wave of Wolfsburg onslaught.
Prior to the opening-day disappointment, Bochum enjoyed a productive pre-season schedule - winning four of their seven friendlies, which included a 3-1 win away at Borussia Dortmund.
A 2-1 win after extra time followed the pre-season fixtures, in the first round of the DFB-Pokal against fourth-tier side Wuppertaler.
The hosts are expected to struggle on their return to the top flight, but if they are to put up a fight, games such as this one against a fellow expected struggler will be important in their battle to survive.
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Meanwhile, Mainz could not have wished for a better start to their Bundesliga season; an unexpected 1-0 win over last year's runners-up RB Leipzig at the Opel Arena was the perfect way to mark the return of some fans to German stadiums.
Die Nullfunfer found themselves in the unlikely position of an early lead, thanks to Moussa Niakhate's goal just 12 minutes in; this played into their hands perfectly, as they allowed their opponents plenty of possession and sat deep to soak up the pressure of constant attacks.
The result was even more surprising when taking into account the outbreak of COVID-19 within the Mainz camp recently, as 11 players and three staff members were forced to self-isolate and missed the win over Leipzig.
Those who followed the Bundesliga last season will not have been too surprised by the result, as Mainz managed to miraculously finish 12th last season, despite having only seven points after 17 matches.
Manager Bo Svensson oversaw the miracle after being appointed in January. During his 21 league matches in charge, Mainz have won 10, drawn six and lost just five, which includes two successes over Leipzig, a victory over Bayern Munich and a win away to Wolfsburg.
Preparations for this season prior to last weekend's win have also been positive for Saturday's visitors. Pre-season saw three wins from four friendlies, while progression through the first round of the DFB-Pokal was achieved via penalties after a 2-2 draw away to amateur side SV Elversberg.
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Team News
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Bochum will be forced into at least one change for the visit of Mainz after Robert Tesche's red card last weekend, which means that he will be suspended for this fixture.
Manager Thomas Reis will most likely be forced into another couple of alterations, however, due to a couple of injury absentees as well.
Christopher Antwi-Adjei (thigh), Luis Hartwig (groin) and Maxim Leitsch (knock) have been ruled out, while Danny Blum and Konstantinos Stafylidis are doubts due to match fitness struggles.
In terms of Mainz, they are expected to stick with the XI that started the opening-day win over Leipzig.
This means that teenage academy products Niklas Tauer and Paul Nebel should feature again, as the visitors continue to recover from the COVID-19 outbreak in throughout the club.
Included within the self-isolating players is striker Adam Szalai, along with Jean-Paul Boetius, Dominik Kohr, Anderson-Lenda Lucoqui, Karim Onisiwo and Jeremiah St Juste.
Midfielder Anton Stach continues to remain unavailable due to suspension.
VfL Bochum possible starting lineup:
Riemann; Gamboa, Lampropoulos, Bella-Kotchap, Soares; Asano, Pantovic, Losilla, Rexhbecaj, Holtmann; Zoller
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Niakhate, Bell, Hack; Widmer, Tauer, Barreiro, Martin; Burkardt, Lee, Nebel
We say: VfL Bochum 0-1 Mainz 05
Both of these sides would be expected to be struggling near the bottom of the table come May, but with Mainz continuing on from their excellent form of last season with a fantastic win over Leipzig, it is hard to see past them. Bochum look like they are in for a long and hard season, while Mainz could be a dark horse for a top-half finish should their momentum continue.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a VfL Bochum win with a probability of 47.43%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 29.77% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a VfL Bochum win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.22%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that VfL Bochum would win this match.
