A crucial battle at the foot of the Premier League table takes place at Vicarage Road on Saturday afternoon, as Burnley seek to more or less condemn Watford to the drop.
The Hornets head into this game nine points adrift of safety in 19th spot, while the Clarets are hovering just two points above the dotted line.
Match preview
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Roy Hodgson is running out of time to salvage Watford's top-flight status for another season, and only a win will do for the Hornets if they are to stay alive in the relegation dogfight for much longer, as an immediate return to the Championship becomes more realistic by the week.
A trip to the Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City normally only ends one way for Watford - with a glut of goals going past them. Gabriel Jesus single-handedly ensured that would be the case again, scoring four himself while also setting up Rodri in a 5-1 thumping.
The tiny flicker of hope Watford received from Hassane Kamara's 28th-minute response was immediately extinguished by the red-hot Jesus, and a run of four straight defeats means that Watford are all but condemned to relegation, although they will not be completely down and out this weekend.
Victory for Burnley would leave Watford with a 12-point gap to make up to the Clarets with four games remaining, and they will also be welcoming Everton to Vicarage Road on May 11, but their status as Championship returnees may have already been confirmed before then.
The Hornets' run of four straight defeats has also seen them concede an average of three goals per game in that stretch, and they could also set an unwanted top-flight record of 11 straight defeats on home turf, so every ounce of fighting spirit left in Hodgson's side must come to the fore this weekend.
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Sean Dyche's hardcore supporters may be loath to admit it, but the sacking of the former Burnley boss has paid early dividends for the relegation-threatened Clarets, who have posted back-to-back wins to take control of their Premier League destiny.
After seeing off Southampton on their own turf, Burnley boosted their survival hopes by harming Wolverhampton Wanderers' European aspirations in a 1-0 Turf Moor success, as Matej Vydra popped up with the only goal of the game in the 62nd minute on a day where Nick Pope's contributions were also gratefully received.
The work of Mike Jackson and co should certainly be noted by those upstairs at Turf Moor, with the Clarets now 17th in the table and two points clear of Everton, but crucially, Frank Lampard's side do have a game in hand and could still throw the cat amongst the pigeons.
Picking up a trio of successive wins on home soil is certainly the ideal way for Burnley to try to improve on their meagre tally of one Premier League away win in 2021-22 - only Everton have also claimed just a solitary win on the road in the competition this term - but it has been three years since the Clarets last won three top-flight games on the bounce.
Burnley were held to a goalless stalemate by Watford at Turf Moor back in February, but the Hornets have taken just one point from their last three home meetings with the Clarets, who will aim to fend off the threat of one relegation rival once and for all this weekend.
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Team News
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Watford continue to cope without striker Cucho Hernandez for the long-term, while Kwadwo Baah is now back from an ankle injury and is fighting to return to the squad.
Hodgson will also hope to be boosted by the returns of Juraj Kucka, Kiko Femenia, Samuel Kalu and Francisco Sierralta for the relegation six-pointer, with the former two only suffering from minor knocks while Kalu and Sierralta were back in training before the City defeat.
Despite the thrashing inflicted upon them by the reigning champions, Hodgson is unlikely to consider many changes to his Watford XI barring a potential freshening up of the backline with Femenia and Craig Cathcart.
As far as Burnley are concerned, Jackson is still working without Ashley Westwood, Johann Berg Gudmundsson, Erik Pieters and Ben Mee - the latter of whom could still be back in the fold before the end of the season.
Jay Rodriguez's calf problem could mean a recall for Aaron Lennon out wide, with Jackson set to make a late call on the involvement of Maxwel Cornet owing to a small knee issue.
Barring Lennon or Cornet's inclusion out wide, it should be as you were for the in-form Clarets, as Jackson aims to become the first manager in Burnley history to avoid defeat in his first four top-flight games in charge.
Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Femenia, Samir, Cathcart, Kamara; Cleverley, Louza, Sissoko; Sarr, Dennis, King
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Pope; Roberts, Collins, Tarkowski, Taylor; McNeil, Cork, Brownhill, Lennon; Weghorst, Vydra
We say: Watford 1-2 Burnley
Finding the back of the net at the Etihad should give Watford the belief that they can make the net ripple at least once in a game with so much at stake, but a revitalised Burnley are sure to take advantage of the Hornets' ongoing defensive woes.
It has been nothing but defeat after defeat for Watford in front of their own fans recently, and while Hodgson will rally his troops as best he can, their fate should be virtually sealed as Burnley boost their own hopes of survival.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 39.06%. A win for Watford had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (6.8%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (9.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Burnley in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Burnley.
