Wellington Phoenix take on the A-League's bottom side Newcastle Jets this weekend, with the New Zealand side looking for their first win of the season in Wollongong.
The Jets are not just without a win this season but are yet to pick up even a single point from their four league games so far, so the pressure is already mounting on interim coach Craig Deans.
Match preview
Wellington coach Ufuk Talay has yet to see his team win from their two A-League games so far this season, with the team having lost 2-1 to Sydney FC in their opening game of the season.
The Phoenix followed up that defeat with a 1-1 draw against Macarthur, a game in which Alex Rufer received a 62nd-minute red card.
That dismissal certainly played a significant part in the team not taking all three points off the Australian outfit, with David Ball's 39th-minute opener being cancelled out just five minutes after Rufer's sending-off.
The impression remains that the Phoenix are not quite fulfilling their obvious potential as a team so far this season, but it is still early days, and a game against a Jets outfit that looks to be in some turmoil presents a great opportunity to pick up their first victory.
The Jets' start to the current campaign has been miserable, with the team having suffered four successive defeats this season so far.
Players such as Valentino Yuel and Ramy Najjarine have shown glimpses of their obvious potential, but the team overall has frustratingly failed to click.
Newcastle have conceded seven goals in their four games so far and scored just three, which gives a pretty clear indication of where the problems lie.
If Deans cannot tighten things up at the back then this could be a very long season indeed for the Hunter Valley outfit.
When the two sides last met in August, the Jets won 3-0, but a lot has changed at Newcastle since then with key players and the coach departing the club.
Wellington Phoenix Australian A-League form: LD
Newcastle Jets Australian A-League form: LLLL
Team News
Reno Piscopo will not be in action for Wellington this weekend as he has not shaken off a calf injury he picked up earlier in January.
Alex Rufer is suspended following his red card in the draw with Macarthur, but otherwise coach Talay has a full range of options at his disposal.
Jason Hoffman has returned to active duty for the Jets but does not look back to full fitness yet despite recent action.
Other than that, Craig Deans will be relieved that his team has no other injury or suspension concerns ahead of what looks like being a tough challenge for them.
Wellington Phoenix possible starting lineup:
Marinovic; McGarry, Laws, DeVere, Payne; Lewis, Devlin, Ridenton, Davila; Hemed, Ball
Newcastle Jets possible starting lineup:
Duncan; Topor-Stanley, Boogaard, Koutroumbis; Ugarkovic, Hoffman, Thurgate, O'Toole, Najjarine; Yuel, O'Donovan
We say: Wellington Phoenix 1-0 Newcastle Jets
Wellington are keen to get their first win on the board in the current campaign and we suspect that they will manage it this weekend, but it might be close.
The Jets lack coherence and concede too many goals to win games at the moment. While the Phoenix have not yet clicked as a team this season, we suspect they will have just enough to secure a narrow win and their first three points of the campaign.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 39.41%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.41%) and 2-0 (5.76%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
