Wolfsburg host Hoffenheim on Sunday as the 2020-21 Bundesliga continues, with the two sides separated by a single point and place in the table.
The hosts are one of only two sides left unbeaten in the German top flight, having drawn five of their opening six matches, while Hoffenheim are without a win since beating Bayern Munich prior to the international break.
Match preview
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It has been a curious start to the season for Oliver Glasner's side. Not many sides in recent history can have remained unbeaten after six games yet occupy a place in the bottom half of the table, but that is where Wolfsburg find themselves having only won once all season.
That win came against Arminia Bielefeld a couple of weeks ago, but was promptly followed up with another draw at Bruno Labbadia's Hertha Berlin last weekend. Glasner replaced his opponent as Wolfsburg boss in 2018, despite Labbadia leading the club to a Europa League qualification position, so both managers would have been desperate to get one over on each other.
Matheus Cunha's strike from outside the area somehow squeezed inside the post despite the Brazilian forward slipping as he struck the ball, before Bote Baku's ferocious left footed strike restored parity in the game. Labbadia looked like he would have the last laugh when his side were awarded a penalty, with Wout Weghorst's high foot adjudged to have been dangerous, however it was overturned after a VAR check.
Weghorst could have won the match for his side with a header late in the match, but sent it harmlessly wide. Glasner could certainly do with his striker rediscovering his form from last season, when only Robert Lewandowski, Timo Werner and Jadon Sancho scored more Bundesliga goals than the Dutchman.
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Since stunning the world by beating Bayern 4-1 prior to the international break, Hoffenheim have taken just one point from four league games to slide to 12th in the table.
That downturn in form has directly correlated with the absence of striker Andrej Kramaric, who tested positive for coronavirus during the last international break and has not featured since.
Sebastian Hoeness's side were hugely disappointing in a 3-1 home defeat to Union Berlin last weekend, with Robert Skov sent off early in the second half for pulling back Sebastian Griesbeck as he was about to shoot at goal inside the penalty area. Max Kruse continued his run of having never missed a Bundesliga penalty, scoring his 15th to move two behind the record, before Munas Dabbur made amends for some profligate finishing in the first half by clinically firing into the roof of the net to level the match.
However, the man disadvantage told, with Kruse instrumental in all of Union Berlin's goals as they sealed the three points late in the match.
Hoeness can at least point to a perfect record in his side's Europa League campaign, with Thursday's 5-0 victory over Slovan Liberec their third win from three matches as they look to have one foot already in the knockout stages.
Wolfsburg Bundesliga form: DDDDWD
Wolfsburg form (all competitions): DLDDWD
Hoffenheim Bundesliga form: WWLLDL
Hoffenheim form (all competitions): LWDWLW
Team News
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Glasner remains without William da Silva (cruciate ligament), Kevin Mbabu (ligament), Joshua Guilavogui (torn muscle) and Paulo Otavio (muscle) for the visit of Hoffenheim.
Admir Mehmedi may return to the starting XI having only featured off the bench in the draw at Hertha.
Hoeness is without a host of players, too, with captain Benjamin Hubner still out with a tear in a joint. Dennis Geiger (fractured hand), Kostas Stafylidis (shoulder), Ermin Bicakcic (cruciate ligament), Kasim Adams (fitness) and Stefan Posch (ankle ligament) are all unavailable, too, as is Skov after his red card last week.
Hoffenheim fans will be particularly anxious to see whether Kramaric returns to the squad for the first time since scoring twice in the win against Bayern prior to the international break. It seems likely he is being rested until after the forthcoming one, though.
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Gerhardt; Steffen, Philipp, Mehmedi; Weghorst
Hoffenheim possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Nordtveit, Vogt, Akpoguma; Rudy, Samassekou, Grillitsch, Gacinovic, Sessegnon; Belfodil, Dabbur
We say: Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim
With Hoffenheim missing a host of important players, chiefly Kramaric if he is still not available, we can see Wolfsburg remaining unbeaten but more importantly picking up a second win of the season here.
Weghorst will be desperate to get back to goalscoring ways and could have too much physicality and ability in front of goal for the visitors to deal with in their current state.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wolfsburg win with a probability of 38.63%. A win for Hoffenheim had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wolfsburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.33%). The likeliest Hoffenheim win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wolfsburg would win this match.
