After booking their place at Wembley for the EFL Trophy final, League One leaders Rotherham United will be looking to claim all three points at Adams Park when they lock horns with Wycombe Wanderers on Saturday.
The Chairboys have only won one of their last five games on home soil, while the Millers are unbeaten in each of their last seven matches on the road.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a difficult run of three draws and four defeats, Wycombe have since bounced back with consecutive league victories against Cambridge United and Crewe Alexandra, scoring three goals in both games.
A brace from January signing Lewis Wing and a goal from Sam Vokes helped the Chairboys claim maximum points in a 3-1 win at Crewe last weekend, a result which keeps them in seventh place and just one point behind the playoffs.
Gareth Ainsworth's men now face a challenging home fixture against league leaders Rotherham, but their impressive record against the Millers should provide them with plenty of confidence, as they have lost only one of their last 12 meetings, winning six times and drawing the other five.
Their only defeat was at home against Rotherham in the Championship last season, with Michael Ihiekwe scoring a 92nd-minute winner for the Millers.
Wycombe, who have won 10 of their 18 League One fixtures at Adams Park this season, could move up to fifth in the table with a victory on Saturday, though they would still be 12 points behind Rotherham at the summit.
© Reuters
Rotherham have suffered a slight wobble in League One after playing out a goalless draw at Shrewsbury Town before losing 2-1 at home against MK Dons last weekend.
They almost extended their winless run in all competitions to three matches, but they just managed to scrape past League Two outfit Hartlepool United 5-4 on penalties to reach the EFL Trophy final, following a 2-2 draw in 90 minutes on Thursday night.
Paul Warne's men have been the standout performers in League One this season, accumulating 76 points from their 36 games, and they are currently sitting four points clear at the top of the table.
However, they cannot take anything for granted just yet as second-placed Wigan Athletic still have two games in hand, so Warne will be keen for his side to put together another strong run of form as they bid to end the season on a high with promotion to the Championship as League One champions.
Rotherham have won 11 of their 18 away games in the third tier so far this season, conceding just five goals in the process, which is the fewest of any team in England's top four divisions. The Millers will need their resilient backline to be on top of their game once again this weekend if they are to claim any points against playoff-chasing Wycombe.
- D
- D
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Wycombe defender Ryan Tafazolli will be assessed ahead of kickoff after suffering a knock to his ear last weekend.
Tafazolli, if fit, will likely start at centre-back alongside Anthony Stewart, joining full-backs Jason McCarthy and Jordan Obita in the back four.
Ainsworth is not expected to make too many changes, if any, to his starting lineup, with Gareth McCleary, Daryl Horgan and Anis Mehmeti all set to support target man Vokes in attack.
As for Rotherham, Jamie Lindsay is an injury doubt after being withdrawn in the second half against Hartlepool, while Freddie Ladapo is ruled out for several weeks with a thigh problem.
Michael Ihiekwe, Chiedozie Ogbene and Shane Ferguson all began on the substitutes' bench last time out, but the trio are set to return to the first XI ahead of Rarmani Edmonds-Green, Jordi Osei-Tutu and Tolaji Bola respectively.
Striker Michael Smith, who scored twice in midweek to take his season's tally to 23 goals in 40 games across all competitions, is set to lead the line in attack alongside Joshua Kayode.
Wycombe Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Stockdale; McCarthy, Stewart, Tafazolli, Obita; Wing, Scowen; McCleary, Horgan, Mehmeti; Vokes
Rotherham United possible starting lineup:
Vickers; Ihiekwe, Wood, MacDonald; Barlaser; Ogbene, Rathbone, Wiles, Ferguson; Kayode, Smith
We say: Wycombe Wanderers 1-2 Rotherham United
A couple of weeks ago, Rotherham would have been rubbing their hands at this fixture given Wycombe's poor run of form; however, the Chairboys have since turned their fortunes around, while the Millers have suffered a slight dip, so Saturday's contest is set to be a closely-fought contest.
Nevertheless, we feel that the visitors will do just enough to claim a slender victory away from home and boost their title hopes.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rotherham United win with a probability of 51.72%. A win for Wycombe Wanderers had a probability of 24.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rotherham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (9%). The likeliest Wycombe Wanderers win was 1-0 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
