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Preview: Hungarian Grand Prix - track guide, prediction, race preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Hungarian Grand Prix at the Hungaroring Circuit, including predictions, a track guide and qualifying results.

As we approach the halfway point of the season, round 12 will see F1 head to the Hungaroring in Budapest for the Hungarian Grand Prix this weekend.

Going into the race, there is an air of excitement, especially for the midfield teams like Mclaren, who had an amazing race at Silverstone, and if they can bring the same type of form to this circuit, it could cause a major shake-up in the Constructor Championship.


Race preview

Max Verstappen pictured at the British GP on July 9, 2023© Reuters

After a compelling British Grand Prix that saw a surprise podium result for McLaren and Lando Norris, the Hungarian GP is a totally different challenge for the teams compared to Silverstone, which is one of the fastest circuits on the calendar with its infamous high-speed corners.

Max Verstappen once again claimed the top step, still racing in a class of his own, and the champion-elect is now on the cusp of breaking the all-time record for most consecutive Grand Prix wins, which McLaren held.

In terms of pace, Silverstone was perhaps one of the most difficult races of the season for Red Bull, with Verstappen having to take a few laps before he was able to start opening the gap over the competition, while Sergio Perez struggled most of the way, again.

However, with the Hungaroring being a typically high downforce circuit, one can expect the Red Bull to dominate once again as they are very strong when DRS is being used due to their DRS efficiency.

What that also means is if Perez has another stinker in qualifying, he could still find it somewhat easy to make his way through the field, and he is in major need of a few good results with the return of a certain Daniel Ricciardo.

Daniel Ricciardo at the Miami GP on May 5, 2023© Reuters

Ricciardo's return to F1 with AlphaTauri seems like Red Bull are going to be evaluating both Yuki Tsunoda and Ricciardo over the remainder of the season, and with Verstappen unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon, Perez may find himself on the chopping block.

While there is a buzz of anticipation for the return of the eight-time Grand Prix winner, it could easily turn out to be an anticlimactic affair as everyone involved with the car has mentioned how difficult it is to drive, and that shows with the team rooted to the bottom of the Constructor Championship.

In addition, Ricciardo is coming into a circuit that requires a benign chassis to handle the slowish nature, which the AlphaTauri is not known for, and he is against a really competitive teammate in Tsunoda, who has impressed most this season.

This is the eighth time that Red Bull have changed drivers midway through the season, and it will be interesting to see what Ricciardo can do about his prospects for 2024 when he is driving such a slow car.

George Russell at the British GP on July 9, 2023© Reuters

For Mercedes, the British Grand Prix was a tale of two halves as they went from struggling for pace in qualifying to brilliant in-race and held their own with McLaren and Red Bull when it came to average pace across the race.

Mercedes have been the subject of a lot of attention over the last 18 months, and opinion is divided over where they are at the moment, with many feeling that they are falling behind since their supposedly game-changing upgrade from Monaco has not made a huge difference to their lap time four races later.

However, this could be a great race for Mercedes since they were strong in Montreal and had decent pace at Monaco; plus, they had a brilliant race here last year, which could mean that things could get very tight behind the Red Bull in this one.

George Russell had a great race at Silverstone, but unfortunately for him, he was hurt by the timing of the safety car, and while many neutrals would agree that he deserved a podium finish, it was not to be.

The safety car played perfectly into the hands of Lewis Hamilton, though, as he stayed out until the safety car left, which allowed him to jump Oscar Piastri and take yet another podium at Silverstone.

Charles Leclerc at the British GP on July 9, 2023© Reuters

Last weekend was tough for Ferrari but had the qualifying on Saturday been fully dry, they would likely have started the race higher up, although when it came to the race pace on the hard tyres, they had very little to give.

Now on the softest tyres, there is a possibility that they will have a slightly better race, especially when you consider that they did well back in Monaco, and as long as they can deliver something similar here, they certainly have a shot at the podium.

Carlos Sainz Jr looked good initially at Silverstone, but it turned into a bit of a disaster after Perez went to overtake him, which then saw the Spaniard go on to lose three places in a very short space of time.

Teammate Charles Leclerc also caught the eye in the early stages of the race, and he was able to hold off Russell despite the Mercedes driver being on a step softer tyres. However, a Ferrari strategy call led to Sainz losing a lot of places and ultimately cost him the race.

Given that last year, Ferrari also got their strategy calls completely wrong, with Leclerc at that, they will definitely be looking to improve in that regard going forward.

Fernando Alonso at the Australian GP on March 30, 2023© Reuters

Meanwhile, for Aston Martin, Silverstone was not great, but arguably, nobody expected that it would be as the high-speed nature of the track is not something that works for them at all in recent times.

Thankfully for Aston Martin, though, the Hungaroring should be a much more suited track to their car as they are well suited to slower speed corners which is why Fernando Alonso was so strong at Monaco and Montreal.

On that basis, the Hungarian GP should be a much better weekend for Aston Martin, and it would not be a huge surprise if Alonso finds himself on the podium if they can nail the weekend.

It is becoming quite noticeable that some of the bigger teams are closing the gap to the Aston Martin, and while there was always a feeling of inevitability that the likes of Mercedes and Ferrari would overtake Aston Martin in terms of pace, they will have a chance to silence their critics here.

McLaren jumped up the pecking order significantly at Silverstone, with Mercedes calling their car a rocket ship, while Andrea Stella has said the key has been teamwork and the distributed model of the technical changes made back at the factory and in Woking.

However, it is unlikely that they will have the same sort of performance as they did at Silverstone, which is a high-speed track where they thrive, and they were excellent in the high-speed turns, which is something the Hungaroring does not have.


Track Guide

Lewis Hamilton pictured during practice for the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 31, 2021© Reuters

The circuit in Hungary has a number of slow-speed corners with several tight and twisty sections and chicanes, which is why the Hungaroring is often referred to as Monaco without the walls.

As a result, teams tend to run the same levels of downforce as they would in Monaco but since DRS's introduction, we typically see lots of overtaking mainly because the drag reduction is much higher at this circuit when DRS is activated, and the main straight is just long enough to be effective.

While cars that were stronger in Monaco are likely to have a good weekend in Hungary, based on how much the cars have changed since then, the running order could see several changes.

This will be one of the few races where Pirelli have opted to change the tyres from last year when they took the C2, C3 and C4 tyres, but the C2's were a complete disaster as they were way too hard for the circuit, and offered very little grip as it was almost impossible to generate sufficient tyre temperature.

Thus, Pirelli have gone a step softer this weekend, bringing the C3, C4 and C5, which are the softest tyres in their range.

There were 42 pit stops last year, with most teams opting for a two-stop race and with Pirelli going for a softer tyre, most teams will likely have to make two stops again this year, but some teams that are generally harder on their tyres, such as Haas, may still have to make three stops.

Tyre wear is not uncommon around the circuit in Hungary, especially when taking into consideration the high temperature that Budapest experiences around this time of year.

Overtaking at the track is difficult but possible, especially with the high amounts of drag reduction one can expect with the DRS, and this can be seen when we look at last year's stats showing 61 on-track overtakes, making it one of the races with the most overtakes all year long.

To help with overtaking, the track has two DRS zones, with the first one coming down the main pit straight and the second on the exit of turn one into turn two, which means that if you do not get in done down the main straight, you do have a second opportunity going into turn two.

However, a turn-two overtake typically requires a much riskier move into the corner due to the hairpin being a relatively high-speed one.

Last year's fastest lap time of the race was 1:21.386 by Hamilton, and the pole position lap time was clocked at 1:17.377 by Russell in the Mercedes as the Silver Arrows took their only pole position for the year.


Qualifying Results

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Max Verstappen
3. Lando Norris
4. Oscar Piastri
5. Zhou Guanyu
6. Charles Leclerc
7. Valterri Bottas
8. Fernando Alonso
9. Serio Perez
10. Nico Hulkenberg
11. Carlos Sainz
12. Esteban Ocon
13. Daniel Ricciardo
14. Lance Stroll
15. Pierre Gasly
16. Alex Albon
17. Yuki Tsunoda
18. George Russell
19. Kevin Magnussen
20. Logan Sargeant

Hamilton secured his first pole position since the latter stages of the 2021 season during the Hungarian Grand Prix qualifying, delivering an impressive performance by outperforming both Verstappen and McLaren's Norris.

Despite the challenging opening exchanges, Hamilton made his way into the top 10 shootout and claimed his first pole in 34 races (since Saudi Arabia 2021).

During his second run, Hamilton managed to edge out Verstappen, who couldn't improve further, by an incredibly slim margin of just 0.003 seconds.

Norris followed closely in third place, with McLaren's rookie driver Piastri also showing an impressive performance and providing support.

Alonso and Aston Martin settled for eighth place, while Perez managed to break his streak of challenging qualifying performances, finishing ninth for Red Bull, and Hulkenberg completed the Q3 runners.

Unfortunately, Carlos Sainz narrowly missed the cut for Q3, finishing in 11th place, along with Alpine's Ocon and F1 returnee Daniel Ricciardo, who secured a respectable 13th place for AlphaTauri.


Driver Standings

1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 255
2. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) - 156
3. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) - 137
4. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) - 121
5. Carlos Sainz Jr (Ferrari) - 83
6. George Russell (Mercedes) - 82
7. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 74
8. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) - 44
9. Lando Norris (McLaren) - 42
10. Esteban Ocon (Alpine) - 31
11. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 17
12. Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - 16
13. Alexander Albon (Williams) - 11
14. Nico Hulkenberg (Haas) - 9
15. Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo) - 5
16. Zhou Guanyu (Alfa Romeo) - 4
17. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri) - 2
18. Kevin Magnussen (Haas) - 2
19. Logan Sargeant (Williams) - 0
20. Nyck de Vries (AlphaTauri) - 0
21. Daniel Ricciardo (AlphaTauri) - 0


Constructor Standings

1. Red Bull - 411
2. Mercedes - 203
3. Aston Martin - 181
4. Ferrari - 157
5. McLaren - 59
6. Alpine - 47
7. Williams - 11
8. Haas F1 team - 11
9. Alfa Romeo - 9
10. AlphaTauri - 2


SM words green background

We say: Max Verstappen to win

The Dutchman is racing in a class of his own at the moment and the Hungaroring will allow him to make the most of the Red Bulls DRS, which is a crucial factor in this race. Aston Martin and Mercedes are also expected to do well here in Hungary, but we do not see anyone catching the dominant Red Bull.

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Max Verstappen at the British GP on July 6, 2023
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