Round 17 of the 2024 Formula 1 season takes us to Azerbaijan and the final European race before the teams head to Asia and the Americas to round off this pulsating season.
Last time out, Charles Leclerc won in Monza in front of a fervent Ferrari support, and it will be interesting to see if he can make it consecutive race victories this weekend in Baku.
Race preview
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Leclerc heads into this race on the back of his pulsating Monza win, but with Ferrari's up and down form this season, it remains to be seen whether he or his teammate Carlos Sainz have the optimal car for this circuit.
McLaren, meanwhile, will have had a lot of internal meetings after the first-lap overtake of Lando Norris by Oscar Piastri, in which Leclerc ultimately benefited later on in the race, and if Norris is to challenge for the Drivers' Championship, McLaren might now look to prioritise him in their race strategy going forward.
For Red Bull, Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez only collected 12 points between each other at the Italian Grand Prix, and while the balance of their car is still not quite right, the two drivers should be challenging for a podium finish as the absolute worst-case scenario, or else they could be overtaken by McLaren this weekend.
Meanwhile, at Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell finished in P6 and P8 respectively, but neither driver looked particularly confident in Italy, and they never looked close to matching the race pace of Ferrari or McLaren, who both finished comfortably ahead of Toto Wolff's team.
Aston Martin certainly come into this race weekend with the most excitement around them, after they announced that engineering maestro Adrian Newey will join the British team from next season; Newey has been in Formula 1 since the 1980s and could be a huge asset for Aston Martin with his expertise and experience.
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While this news will have buoyed Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll, their car this season has undoubtedly dropped off from the one we saw in 2023, but they do sit comfortably in the midfield and 40 points ahead of their nearest challengers, RB.
Speaking of RB, Daniel Ricciardo finished in a lowly 13th and Yuki Tsunoda was the only driver to suffer a DNF from Monza, but the team have demonstrated their straight-line speed in previous races this season.
In terms of straight-line speed, we turn our attention to Haas, who could be quietly confident of picking up a handful of points in Baku, but rookie Ollie Bearman will be driving for the team alongside Nico Hulkenberg this weekend after Kevin Magnussen's suspension for accumulating too many penalty points.
Alpine, meanwhile, have certainly made improvements from their early season form, but it has been a disappointing season for them, and it would be a surprise if either Pierre Gasly or Esteban Ocon were able to score any points in the Constructors' Championship this weekend.
In terms of the backmarker teams, Williams could also have some cautious optimism that Alex Albon or rookie Franco Colapinto might be able to sneak a P10 finish and give the team some much-needed points in what has otherwise been a lacklustre season.
Last up is Sauber, who are the only team yet to score a single championship point this season, and we would not expect either Valtteri Bottas or Zhou Guanyu to even make it beyond the first qualifying session, let alone score points here at Baku.
Track Guide
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Baku is one of the most technical and high-speed circuits on the entire calendar, with each of the three sectors offering a unique aspect that makes this track so enjoyable for drivers and viewers alike.
Sat on the banks of the Caspian Sea, Baku is a notoriously windy city as it is dubbed the "City of Winds", and these gusts can change direction at the drop of a hat and pick up in intensity too, so the drivers are often wary of the effect the weather can have on this race.
The track itself features one particularly long straight run after Turn 20 and back down to the first corner; totalling 2.2 kilometres, this accounts for more than a third of the track's total length.
In fact, this six-kilometre circuit is the second-longest on the Formula 1 calendar after Belgium's Spa-Francorchamps, but with little room for error at Baku, it is arguably a more difficult track to navigate.
Sector one offers the most chances for overtaking, with the corners at Turns One and Three often being a favourite spot for drivers to make a dive down the inside with the assistance of DRS.
Sector two, meanwhile, is a much more technical and unforgiving part of Baku, with a narrowing track and the notorious castle chicane as the drivers navigate their way through the picturesque city walls.
A balanced car setup here is of the utmost importance, because while sector three requires low downforce to make the most of straight-line speed after Turn 20, the twisting corners in sector two require the correct balance and braking setup in order to maximise exit speed and avoid the barriers.
Hitting the barriers is a neat segue into Turn 15, where drivers often get caught out by the downhill and tight left-hand turn down to the final sector, and the margins are as fine here as they are at the notorious final corner of the Canadian Grand Prix.
In terms of past races at Baku, Leclerc has an unfortunate record, with the Monegasque driver having been a pole-sitter here on the last three occasions, yet he remains winless here.
Red Bull duo Perez and Verstappen have alternated wins here since 2021, with the Mexican driver having won in Azerbaijan in 2021 and 2023, but it will be a tall ask for Perez to make it three Baku triumphs this weekend.
Baku is often a one-stop race with the hard compound tyre being the favourite choice for the teams, and while most teams will start on the medium tyre, choosing the right time to pit could prove crucial in their race strategy.
The conundrum here is whether you pit early to take advantage of the powerful undercut, or whether you extend your opening stint in the hope of pitting during a safety car, with a safety car having a 57% chance of showing up in Baku.
Driver Standings
1. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) - 303
2. Lando Norris (McLaren) - 241
3. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) - 217
4. Oscar Piastri (McLaren) - 197
5. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) - 184
6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) - 164
7. Sergio Perez (Red Bull) - 142
8. George Russell (Mercedes) - 128
9. Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) - 50
10. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) - 24
11. Nico Hulkenberg (Haas) - 22
12. Yuki Tsunoda (RB) - 22
13. Daniel Ricciardo (RB) - 12
14. Pierre Gasly (Alpine) - 8
15. Ollie Bearman (Ferrari) - 6
16. Kevin Magnussen (Haas) - 6
17. Alex Albon (Williams) - 6
18. Esteban Ocon (Alpine) - 5
19. Zhou Guanyu (Sauber) - 0
20. Logan Sargeant (Williams) - 0
21. Franco Colapinto (Williams) - 0
22. Valtteri Bottas (Sauber) - 0
Constructor Standings
1. Red Bull - 446
2. McLaren - 438
3. Ferrari - 407
4. Mercedes - 292
5. Aston Martin - 74
6. RB - 34
7. Haas - 28
8. Alpine - 13
9. Williams - 6
10. Sauber - 0
We say: Lando Norris to win
Despite their recent up and down form, McLaren still have the fastest and most balanced car on the grid right now, with Red Bull still lacking that spark that made them so imperious in 2023.
While Ferrari and Mercedes can also enter this race weekend with plenty of optimism to challenge for a podium, the outright race pace of Norris and Piastri means that McLaren could once again be a cut above the rest this weekend, with the Brit taking the win and closing in on Verstappen.
