Canada Women vs. New Zealand Women – prediction, team news, lineups
Canada Women will begin the defence of their Olympic crown when they face New Zealand Women in Saint-Etienne on Thursday.
The two nations will be vying for a top-two place or a best-third place spot in a group that includes Colombia and Olympic hosts France.
Match preview
Three years ago, Canada went all the way at the Tokyo Olympics to become the fourth different country to win the gold medal in the women’s football event.
Canada, who finished in third place in 2012 and 2016, ousted Brazil and the USA in the knockout rounds in 2021, before they beat Sweden on penalties in the all-important gold medal match.
In contrast to their success at the Olympics, Bev Priestman’s side experienced a forgettable 2023 World Cup campaign, crashing out of the group stage after collecting just four points from three matches.
Twelve months on, Canada have the chance to put their World Cup disappointment behind them after they beat Jamaica in last September’s CONCACAF playoff to seal their spot at the Paris games.
The Canucks will have high hopes of making a knockout round appearance, having progressed from the group stage in each of their previous four appearances at the Olympics.
Like their opponents, New Zealand failed to make it out of the group stage of last year’s World Cup which they co-hosted alongside Australia.
The Football Ferns finished level on four points with second-placed Norway in Group A, but they were ultimately denied a quarter-final spot at their home tournament due to their inferior goal difference.
New Zealand will have another chance to compete with the world’s best teams after they won an OFC Olympic qualifying tournament earlier this year to punch their ticket to France.
They can now look forward to making their fifth consecutive appearance at the Olympics, but they will have their work cut out as the lowest-ranked country in Group A.
Having failed to make it out of the group at the last two Olympics, the Football Ferns will be hoping to spring a surprise to advance to the knockout rounds for the first time since 2012.
Canada Women form (all competitions): WLWDWW
New Zealand Women form (all competitions): WWDLLD
Canada Women vs. New Zealand Women odds
Looking at the odds for this match, we can see that Canada Women are the clear and absolute favourites with a 78.70% probability to win this match, while New Zealand Women have just 8.30% probability to get all the points.
Canada Women Odds: 27/100 – 78.70% probability
Draw Odds: 5/1 – 16.70% probability
New Zealand Women Odds: 11/1 – 8.30% probability
If we look at the goals markets, we can see that over 2.5 total goals is priced at 4/6 odds, which is the same as a 60.00% probability. On the other hand, under 2.5 total goals has odds of 5/4, which implies a 44.40% probability. Also, both teams to score comes with odds of 5/4 and a 44.40% probability, so the bookies don't expect both nets to bulge in this match.
Team News
Priestman has been forced to make alterations to her original squad after Sydney Collins fractured her leg in a training game against Nigeria on Thursday.
Gabrielle Carle has been promoted from the reserve list, while Desiree Scott has been added as an alternate following her absence from the original squad.
However, Scott or one of the other three alternates will only be called up if injury forces someone to drop out of the main 18-player squad.
As for New Zealand, their squad includes 10 players who will be participating in their first Olympic campaign, including Milly Clegg, Macy Fraser and Katie Kitching.
Their squad still contains plenty of experienced heads, including Katie Bowen, Meikayla Moore, Ali Riley and Rebekah Stott.
New Zealand boss Michael Mayne will take Claudi Bunge, Michaela Foster, Annalie Longo and Murphy Sheaff as his travelling reserves.
Canada Women possible starting lineup: Sheridan; Rose, Gilles, Buchanan; Lawrence, Awujo, Fleming, Riviere; Huitema, Lacasse, Leon
New Zealand Women possible starting lineup: Leat; Bott, Bowen, Stott, Riley; Green, Steinmetz, Taylor, Kitching; Clegg, Hand
We say: Canada Women 2-1 New Zealand Women
As the reigning Olympic champions, Canada will be heavily fancied to make it out of the group, and we think they will take a step towards the quarter-finals by kicking off their campaign with a narrow win over New Zealand.
