Olympics: Australia vs. USA – prediction, team news, lineups
USA Women will attempt to finish the 2024 Olympic group stage with a 100% record when they face Australia Women in Wednesday's clash in Marseille.
The Stars and Stripes are already guaranteed a last-eight spot, while Australia still have work to do after taking three points from their first two matches.
Match preview
Australia are still in the hunt for a quarter-final spot despite shipping eight goals across their opening two matches against Germany and Zambia.
After falling to a 3-0 loss against Germany, the Matildas were left stunned when they found themselves 5-2 down in Sunday's second group game against Zambia in Nice.
However, Australia managed to stage a stunning comeback, with an own goal and a Steph Catley brace restoring parity before Michelle Heyman netted a 90th-minute winner.
The Matildas will head into the final group game in third spot with goal difference keeping them behind second-placed Germany, while they are three points behind group leaders USA and three points clear of Zambia.
Australia will be desperate to clinch a top-two position or one of the best third-placed spots as they look to avoid their first group-stage exit since the 2000 Olympics.
Former Chelsea manager Emma Hayes has made an impressive start to her first major tournament as an international manager, having seen her USA side kick off the 2024 Olympics with consecutive victories.
They breezed past Zambia via a 3-0 scoreline, before they produced another dominant performance in Sunday's second group game against 2016 Olympic champions Germany.
The Stars and Stripes cruised to a dominant 4-1 victory thanks to a Sophia Smith brace as well as goals from Mallory Swanson and Lydia Williams.
Hayes is now the second manager of the USA women's team to win each of their first two matches at a major tournament, emulating a feat previously achieved by Anson Dorrance at the 1991 World Cup.
Having secured a place in the quarter-finals, the Stars and Stripes will now be looking to clinch top spot and extend their unbeaten run under Hayes to seven matches.
Australia Olympic Games form: LW
Australia form (all competitions): WDWLLW
USA Olympic Games form: WW
USA form (all competitions): WWWDWW
Australia vs. USA odds
Even though they've pretty much secured the top spot in the group, USA Women are the clear favourites in this match too, with a 63.60% win probability. Meanwhile, Australia Women have a 17.90% win probability in this game.
Australia Women Odds: 23/5 – 17.90% probability
Draw Odds: 15/4 – 21.10% probability
USA Women Odds: 4/7- 63.60% probability
When it comes to goals markets, the bookies have priced over 2.5 total goals at 7/10 odds, which is the same as a 58.80% win probability. On the other hand, under 2.5 total goals has odds of 6/5, which implies a 45.50% probability.
If you expect to see a lot of goals here, you may also want to back both teams to score at 5/6 odds and a 54.50% probability.
Team News
Australia boss Tony Gustavsson could be tempted to make some changes to the side that started Sunday’s clash with Zambia.
Heyman could be rewarded with a starting berth after she came off the bench to score the winner in the dramatic 6-5 victory.
Everton’s Clare Wheeler may also get the chance to start in central midfield alongside Arsenal’s Kyra Cooney-Cross.
Meanwhile, the USA forward Jaedyn Shaw remains a doubt after missing the first two matches due to a leg injury.
They will also have to assess the fitness of Tierna Davidson, who was forced off in the first half against Germany.
With a quarter-final spot secured, Hayes could be tempted to rotate her squad which could see Emily Sonnett, Jenna Nighswonger, Korbin Albert and Lydia Williams start the final group match.
Australia possible starting lineup: Arnold; Carpenter, Kennedy, Hunt, Catley; Raso, Wheeler, Cooney-Cross, Foord; Fowler; Heyman
USA possible starting lineup: Naeher; Fox, Girma, Sonnet, Nighswonger; Horan, Coffey, Albert; Rodman, Williams, Swanson
We say: Australia 1-3 USA
While Australia showed great fight to claim all three points against Zambia, they have struggled defensively in their first two matches, and we think their vulnerable backline will be exploited by the USA's array of attacking talent.
