Olympics: Australia vs. Zambia – prediction, team news, lineups
Australia and Zambia will both look to bounce back from heavy defeats when they go head-to-head in Sunday’s Olympic clash at Allianz Riviera.
The Matildas were swept aside by Germany, while Zambia were punished for a poor start against the USA.
Match preview
Australia’s bid to win their first Olympic medal in women’s football got off to a disastrous start as they fell to a heavy 3-0 defeat in their opening game against Germany.
Marina Hegering gave Germany a slender half-time lead, before Lea Schuller and Jule Brand scored in the space of four minutes to dispatch the Matildas with minimum fuss.
The result represented Australia's first competitive defeat since losing 2-0 to Sweden in the third-place playoff at the 2023 World Cup.
With Australia set to face the USA in their final group game, they will feel they need to claim maximum points against Zambia to give themselves the best possible chance to reach the Olympic knockout rounds for the fourth time in five appearances.
The Matildas are looking to win the second group game at the Olympics for the first time since beating Greece on matchday two in 2004.
Like Australia, Zambia also fell to a 3-0 defeat in their tournament opener after they failed to deal with the USA’s fast start.
Trinity Rodman opened the scoring in the 17th minute before Mallory Swanson netted a quickfire brace to establish a three-goal lead by the 25-minute mark.
To make matters worse, Zambia were reduced to 10 players when Pauline Zulu was dismissed in the 34th minute for fouling Sophia Smith as the last defender.
However, to Zambia’s credit, they managed to keep the USA at bay for the remainder of the contest, preventing any more damage to their goal difference.
They will now turn their focus to matches against Australia and Germany, with Zambia hoping to pull off a couple of surprises to qualify for the Olympic knockout rounds for the first time.
Australia Olympic Games form: L
Australia form (all competitions): WWDWLL
Zambia Olympic Games form: L
Zambia form (all competitions): WDLWDL
Australia vs. Zambia odds
Both Australia and Zambia have lost their first-round matches 3-0, but Australia Women are clearly the expected winners in this game based on the odds, with a 81.80% win probability. On the other hand, the bookies give Zambia a measly 6.7% probability to win the match.
Australia Women Odds: 2/9 – 81.80% probability
Draw Odds: 13/2 – 13.30% probability
Zambia Women Odds: 14/1 – 6.70% probability
However, if you also expect Australia to win, but want better odds, it might be worthwhile going with Australia Women to win and lead at half-time at 8/11 odds, which implies a 57.90% probability.
When it comes to the goal markets, over 2.5 total goals has odds of 4/9 (69.20% probability), so the bookies expect goals in this match. Consequently, under 2.5 total goals is priced at 15/8 odds and a 34.80% probability.
Team News
Australia are hopeful that Tameka Yallop will be available for selection after missing the opening game through injury.
Tony Gustavsson may consider bringing Clare Wheeler into the side to partner Kyra Cooney-Cross in the centre of midfield.
Despite seeing his side ship three goals against Canada, Gustavsson is likely to keep faith with the back four of Ellie Carpenter, Alanna Kennedy, Clare Hunt and Steph Catley.
As for Zambia, they will be unable to call upon Pauline Zulu, who is suspended after being shown a straight red card against the USA.
With Zulu unavailable, Esther Muchinga could come into the lineup to partner Lushomo Mweemba in central defence.
Avell Chitundu is also pushing for a starting opportunity after featuring as a substitute on matchday one.
Australia possible starting lineup: Arnold; Carpenter, Kennedy, Hunt, Catley; Raso, Wheeler, Cooney-Cross, Vine; Fowler, Foord
Zambia possible starting lineup: Musole; Siamfuko, Muchinga, Mweemba, Tembo; Chitundu, Chilufya, H Chanda, Kundananji; Banda; Mupopo
We say: Australia 2-0 Zambia
Both teams will be desperate to produce a response after suffering heavy defeats on matchday one, but with Australia ranked 52 places higher than Zambia, we think the Matildas will ultimately have enough quality to claim a relatively comfortable victory.
